The Study Of The Risk Management Of Urban Complex Development

Urban complex is regarded as an advanced form of commercial real estate, which isintegrated with a variety of urban functions, the purpose that the function, streamline andpartition are more complicated is, by its unique business value, make investors and developersto maximize their returns. With the quickening pace of real estate industry development,urban complex will certainly to be one of the important trends, and also will be the mostimportant part of the city in the future and closely related to the development of the city. Atthe same time,the high cost and long payback period of urban complex make the development,operation and marketing of the whole life cycle stages are faced with multiple risks. Therefore,it is vital that identify and analysis each stage of urban complex development project risks andtake appropriate measures to reduce risk to make sure the success of the investment.In the light of the process and the characteristics of urban complex development project,it can be divided into three stages, namely: the decision-making stage, implementation stageand operation stage of sales. This paper has carried on the risk analysis to the three stages.Inthe decision-making stage by comprehensive evaluation method to establish the model inimplementation and operating sales phase by system dynamics method to establish model, andthen using the established model to empirical study S project. On the basis of the study, thepaper puts forward three stages of risk control measures. In this paper, the research will beconducive to complex in the city development and construction in the process of establishingscientific decision mechanism, eliminate or reduce the decision error, avoid caused heavy lossof project failure; Also good for the urban context to play a more important role in thedevelopment of urban economy and culture.