The Research On Interaction Among Rmb Internationalization,Exchange Rate And Exchange Rate Expectations

In recent years,China's comprehensive national strength has been obviously enhanced and the international status has been greatly improved.The RMB has been widely mentioned in the international market.In 2015,the RMB was declared "a basket" as a "milestone" event in the process of internationalization.In order to push forward the internationalization strategy of RMB,the state will relax the contr ol of exchange rate in a timely manner.In addition to the exchange rate,the liberalization of capital account is also gradually put on the agenda,which means that the impact of Renminbi denominated assets abroad on China's economy will gradually increas e.The degree of internationalization of RMB is closely related to the foreign demand for Renminbi denominated assets,and this demand is directly affected by the RMB exchange rate expectation.Therefore,there may be an interactive relationship among the RMB internationalization,the exchange rate and the exchange rate expectation among the three.This paper makes an in-depth analysis of this,and based on the results of the analysis of the rational promotion of the RMB internationalization and the stability of the RMB value of the policy suggestions.This paper first combs the important events and exchange rate fluctuations in the process of RMB internationalization,and then analyzes the interaction mechanism among the RMB internationalization,the exchange rate and the exchange rate expectation,and on this basis,the vector error correction model(VEC)and the time-varying parameter vector autoregressive model(TVP-VAR)are constructed respectively.The interactive relationship among the three is tested empirically.Based on the VEC model,the empirical results show that there is a long-term equilibrium relationship among RMB internationalization,exchange rate and exchange rate expectations in the three countries.The internationalization of RMB can directly explain the change of RMB exchange rate,but the RMB exchange rate can not directly explain the change of RMB internationalization.The internationalization of RMB and the expectation of RMB exchange rate can explain the change of each other.The combination of any two variables is the cause of Grainger cause and effect of third variables.The appreciation of RMB or the expectation of appreciation can promote the internationalization of RMB.In comparison,the promoting effect of RMB appreciation is more obvious.The RMB exchange rate affects the internationalization of RMB by affecting the exchange rate expectation.In the long run,the internationalization of RMB will promote the appreciation of RMB,the short-term promotion effect is not obvious.The internationalization of RMB will also produce RMB appreciation expectation,which is very significant both in the long and short term.Based on the TVP-VAR model,the empirical results show that the impact mechanism of RMB internationalization speed on the rate of RMB appreciation has different performance in different periods.When the degree of RMB internationalization is low,the mechanism of RMB performance is inhibited.In the period from 2008 to 2012,the process of RMB internationalization was ac celerated,which was promoted in 2014.The RMB has a great devaluation pressure and the effect of this promotion is weakened after a new round of remittance in 2015.It shows that the policy of the new foreign exchange reform in 2015 has played a certain r ole in maintaining the stability of the exchange rate in the process of RMB internationalization;the influence of the speed of internationalization of RMB on the expected speed of RMB appreciation and the rate of appreciation of RMB Similar,but the overall view of the more partial inhibition effect;the rate of RMB appreciation and the expected rate of appreciation of the RMB will promote the speed of internationalization of RMB in the short term,and the influence mechanism has not changed obviously at different time periods.