An Empirical Analysis On The Influencing Factors Of Non-performing Assets In Commercial Banks

Since 2017,as China's economic development has entered a "new normal",major changes have taken place in the speed of economic growth,growth structure and momentum of growth.In this background,our country commercial bank bad loan balance and non-performing loans have appeared different degree rise.And commercial bank assets quality deteriorated,the actual situation may be far more serious than the data on the book.According to the data at the end of 2017,the non-performing loan ratio of China's manufacturing and wholesale retail industry is about 4%,which is already at a high historical level.Therefore,as China's economic development has entered a "new normal" and in the background of commercial bank credit quality deterioration,explore the macro to micro economic factors and industry development factors on the impact of non-performing assets of commercial Banks in China,which not only provided a new angle of view,but also attempt to realize smooth transition of economy and provided a theoretical reference.First of all,we defined the concept of non-performing assets of Banks and described the status and trends of the non-performing assets in China's banking industry,through the comparative analysis,it is concluded that we should pay close attention to bad assets in manufacturing,wholesale and real estate industry.It follows that we selected manufacturing PMI,the growth rate of Total Retail Sales of Social Consumer Goods and National Housing Climate Index on behalf of the industry development status indicators.Then we studied the change of relations between commercial Banks non-performing loan ratio.In view of the non-performing loans of commercial Banks,we applied the method of stepwise regression with 7 listed commercial Banks mid-term and annual panel data from 2007 to 2017 as sample,and selected representative macroeconomic variables and individual the bank.At the same time,we selected manufacturing PMI,the growth rate of Total Retail Sales of Social Consumer Goods and National HousingClimate Index,step by step to study their effects on China's commercial Banks non-performing loan ratio.Empirical results found that:in terms of macro and micro economy,real GDP growth,the RMB exchange rate,the rise and the profitability of the commercial bank's loan assets ratio are conducive to the lower non-performing loans of commercial Banks in China.And the rising manufacturing PMI index can reduce the non-performing loans of commercial Banks.On the contrary,National Housing Climate Index rise will increase the non-performing loans of commercial Banks.In order to further testing the soundness and reliability of the above conclusions,and studying whether the rapid development of the real estate industry affects the credit quality of China's manufacturing industry,this article selected the non-performing loan ratio in manufacturing as explained variable and carried on the regression analysis of the above factors,the empirical results further confirmed the above conclusion.Combined with the empirical analysis of this article,in the new stage of transformation and adjustment of economic structure,we should put forward actively to improve the macro economic and financial environment,balance the real GDP growth and maintain China's exchange rate basically stable.At the same time,the bank supervision and management committee should strengthen supervision of China's banking industry,avoid the concentration of commercial Banks or excessive lending,and improve the profitability of commercial Banks.Suppressing the real estate bubble and excessive prosperity,and actively promoting upgrading of manufacturing industry development,these methods can help our country to realize a smooth transition,success against the credit risk of commercial bank,improving the quality of assets of a strategy.