Study On The Fuctuation Of Economic Cycle Of Sucrose Industry In Guangxi

During the "twelfth five-year" period,the influence of the import of sugar,labor costs rise and continuous natural disasters,sucrose industry into a trough,domestic prices have been falling,as a result,in this paper,the three period nesting model is proposed based on the Joseph Schumpeter cycle theory,and the three cycle nesting model is used to study the economic cycle fluctuation of the sucrose industry in Guangxi,and the concrete stages of the three cycles of the sucrose industry in Guangxi are divided.The periodicity of the development of sucrose industry in Guangxi is analyzed from four aspects:sugarcane planting,sugarcane sugar,sugarcane trade and sugarcane related policies,and found existing in sugar industry of Guangxi sugar cane planting condition is poor,low mechanization degree,small cane sugar industry,industry chain depth is not enough,the state of sucrose industry problems such as lack of support.Based on the prediction of Guangxi sugar industry cycle change trend,the next ten years is divided into two stages,and according to the Schumpeter three-cycle nested theory and the characteristics of the cycle to make recommendations on the future development of Guangxi sugar industry:The first phase,from now until around 2021,Kondratieff cycle in the recession and Juglar cycle in the expansion,the replenishment time of the Kitchin cycle is greater than the inventory time,in this stage,we should focus on the following aspects:invest more in equipment,extend the sugar industry chain,regulate the import of sugar,and improve the system of sugar storage;The second phase,from 2021 to 2026 years,Kondratieff cycle in the recession and Juglar cycle in the systolic,the inventory time of the Kitchin cycle is greater than the replenishment time,in this stage,in this stage,we should focus on the following aspects:perfecting the agricultural insurance and agricultural risk funds to protect,upgrade sugar cane sugar production process,increase sales channels,improve industrial concentration,introduced the domestic and foreign excellent management experience and technology,etc.