Research On The Threshold Effect Of Public Investment In Promoting Economic Growth In China

Since the reform and opening up,China's economy has developed at a rapid rate,and one after another “Chinese-style miracle” cannot be separated from the support of public investment.However,with the expansion of the scale of public investment,it has been proved that public investment is not all-encompassing and harmless.The implementation of the “four trillion economic stimulus plan” in 2008 has also caused the inadmissibility of China's economic growth to lead the world.The negative effects of ignoring,at the same time,the long-term implementation of public investment to promote economic growth,the development of regional imbalances and other issues have always plagued China.Based on the above background,studying the reasonable scale and structure of public investment has important implications for the economic growth.The paper first introduced the research background and research significance,and combed the research results of previous scholars at home and abroad,and then introduced the related theories of public investment and economic growth,and introduced and described the development status of public investment and economic growth.The relevant data uses the panel threshold model to empirically analyze the economic growth effect of public investment in China.In the empirical part,the panel threshold model is mainly used to analyze the possible non-linear relationship between public investment and economic growth in China.In the regression,this paper takes the level of regional technological progress,urbanization,labor force,and marketization as the Control variables are included in the model.Based on empirical research,this paper concludes: For the national level,the economic growth effect of public investment has a double threshold,the first threshold is 18,340 yuan/ person,and the second threshold is 42,610 yuan/person.At the same time,the direction of the role of public investment in economic growth shows a trend of first suppressing and then promoting and then reducing the effect;for the regional level,the economic growth effects of public investment in the east,middle and west also have double thresholds.The first and second thresholds in the western region were 17,250 yuan/person,51,720 yuan/person,15,130 yuan/person,and 39,890 yuan/person respectively,and 20,770 yuan/person and 47,030 yuan/person;economic public investment has a significant promoting effect on economic growth,and social public investment has a significant inhibitory effect on economic growth.Combined with the empirical research conclusions,this paper proposes policy options,such as adopting a flexible public investment policy,accelerate the process of urbanization,increasing public investment in science and technology and education regional,and accelerating regional marketization.