Research On The Evaluation Of Real Estate Enterprises From The Periodic Perspective

The real estate industry is in critical status in China's economy development,and its influence must not be underestimated.The development of the real estate industry is closely related to the development of the macro-economy,and also it is a typical cyclical industry.In recent years,the introduction of policies such as "supply-side"reforms,de-stocking,purchase restrictions of houses,and credit limitation has led several impacts to China's real estate companies,including enterprise value.The cyclical property of real estate companies determines that their value assessment can not use the valuation method of general enterprises directly,but focus on the cyclical perspective.This will not only provide scientific value measurement to corporate managers' acquisition decisions,but also provide theory reference to government regulation and accurate investment judgments to investors.Based on the theory of economic cycle,this paper analyzes the macroeconomic factors that affect the Chinese real estate industry,explores the cyclical characteristics of the real estate industry's development,and predicts the development prospects of the real estate industry.Also,it discusses the value assessment methods of different companies,and found that combining discounted cash flow method with scenario analysis method and exit multiple method can better measure the value of real estate companies.Scenario analysis method effectively solves the problem that the uncertainty in future development of real estate companies for the sensitivity of it with the macroeconomic factors.The discounted cash flow method combined with the exit multiple method can avoid the value evaluation error caused by using a single growth rate.Finally,through the case study of a real estate company,this paper empirically examines the idea of cyclical company valuation proposed in this paper.The results show that the idea of value evaluation of real estate companies proposed in this paper has applicability and effectiveness,and can provide a reference for the value evaluation of such enterprises.