Research On The Financial Risk Assessment Of The Listed Companies Of Home Appliance Manufacturing Industry Based On VaR

In an increasingly competitive market environment,business operations face many uncertainties.This risk of uncertainty is accompanied by income.High risks lead to high returns,and low risks lead to low returns.In the company's business activities,it will face various risks such as social risks,political risks and natural risks.Among them,financial risks are the most important one of the many risks the company faces,and it may seriously threaten the survival and development of the enterprises.An effective financial risk assessment system must be developed to accurately predict and timely prevent possible financial risks.With the development of China's economy,the household electrical appliance manufacturing industry has grown rapidly,financial activities have become increasingly complex,and the financial risks faced have increased.Under this background,it is necessary to proceed from the perspective of financial management to conduct an accurate assessment of the company's financial risks,and to discover and effectively control risks in a timely manner.If you ignore the risk or do not take effective countermeasures,companies will not only face losses,and even lead to bankruptcy.From this,it can be seen that the establishment of an effective financial risk assessment system is very significant for the company or various stakeholders.This article identifies the research sample as a listed company in the home appliance manufacturing industry.The financial risks of the industry are affected by various internal and external factors.The external influence factors include changes in the market environment,uncertainties in the natural environment and socio-cultural environment,etc.The main factors are the lack of better internal financial management systems and systems,the lack of understanding of financial risks by financial managers,the lack of scientific financial decisions,and unreasonable capital structure.In addition,the industry ' s continuousasset-liability ratio,declining growth rate of operating income,declining profitability,insufficiency of cash flow,and large increase in accounts receivables are enough to prove that the household electrical appliance manufacturing industry has high financial risks.The traditional financial risk assessment system selects indicators from the company's financial statements,and the data in the statements cannot fully reflect the financial risks facing the company and must take into account the impact of external markets.Therefore,this paper uses the VaR as an indicator.It integrates into the traditional financial risk assessment system and compares the empirical results to analyze its effectiveness.This article first defines the VaR index,and mainly introduces three methods for calculating VaR: parameter method,historical simulation method,Monte Carlo simulation method,the Monte Carlo simulation method selected in this paper and the superiority of using VaR to measure financial risks.Secondly,the selected subjects were listed companies in the A-share home appliance manufacturing industry in Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges,and excluding incomplete data and ST-incorporated companies,a total of 59 qualified companies were obtained,from the ability to repay debts,profitability,operational capability,and access The cash capacity and development ability are selected starting from 17 internal financial indicators,and at the same time,the market value VaR is selected from the perspective of the enterprise external,and the VaR value is calculated using the Monte Carlo simulation method;finally,the financial risk of the traditional assessment system and integration into VaR indicators The evaluation system uses factor analysis to conduct empirical research,and then obtains a factor score matrix,sorts the calculated comprehensive scores,and analyzes the effectiveness of the model using Logistic regression.The empirical results show that the traditional assessment system has goodness of fit.At 32.8%,the goodness of fit into the VaR evaluation system was 43.6%,indicating that the listed company incorporated VaR The financial risk assessment system can more comprehensively and accurately assess the financial risks of listed companies in the household appliance manufacturing industry.This research result has enriched and improved the financial risk assessment system of the household appliance industry.Themethod has a certain guiding role and has certain reference value for other industries' financial risk assessment.At the same time,it provides an effective reference for investors in the selection of investment companies and business managers in decision-making.