The Monte Carlo Analysis Model Of Progress Risk Under Multi-factors

In the process of actual project, many risk factors often cause the project progress to display the uncertain risks. Facing this kind of risk determinism, particularly aiming at the big-scale work or the time limit for a project requests the tight project, it is an essential task how to calculate the time limit for a project and forecast the risk. However, the precisions and usability of the theories which the predecessors advanced cannot be met this requirement. Based on this, this article proposed the Monte Carlo model under multi- factors to simulate accurately.This article firstly analyze varieties of algorithm about the domestic and foreign progress risk analysis, after determining the good and bad points of the method, choose the Monte Carlo method as the essential method. After that, this article briefly introduces the basic knowledge of risk analysis, project management. Then, this article analyses the classification and the quantification situation of the risk factors, and establish this model.At last, through an example's calculation, it can be successfully met the situation. This article obtains the achievement includes: One, break through the ordinary Monte Carlo method and regard the risk factors as random variable. Two, strengthen the statistical function of this model and attach the ACI parameter to strengthen this model's usability.Finally, according to above achievement, this article proposes briefly the unperfected aspect.