Research On Prediction And Development Of Sea-rail Intermodal Transport In Tianjin Port

With the rapid development of China’s economy and foreign trade,China’s port container throughput has increased rapidly.Tianjin Port is the hub port in north China,which has completed the annual container throughput of 17.3 million TEU in 2019.It is the ninth largest port in the world.The large container throughput needs to be supported by an efficient transportation system.Under this background,container intermodal transport as a safe,stable,low-cost and large-capacity transportation mode,has been paid attention more.In recent years,container intermodal transport has achieved rapid development.However,at present,the low proportion of Tianjin port’s sea-rail intermodal transport,accounted for only about 3%of the Tianjin port container throughput,not only far lower than that in developed countries,but also lower than that in the same level domestic ports.On the background of bulk cargo changing to container transportation,the sea-rail intermodal transport in Tianjin Port is facing unprecedented opportunities.Developing container sea-rail intermodal transport has become an inevitable requirement under the integrated development of port logistics.So this paper studies for the development of sea-rail intermodal transport in Tianjin port is very necessary.Firstly,by analyzing the theory of container sea-rail intermodal transport and comparing the development status of sea-rail intermodal transport between domestic and abroad,we can see that the proportion of sea-rail intermodal transport in domestic ports is relatively lower than the foreign ports.Through the port’s current situation、outsourcing and internalization of the port’s supply chain management,the existing problems of sea-rail intermodal transport are found out.Secondly,by sorting out and analyzing the investigated data,consulting relevant literature,and adopting quantitative analysis method,this paper establishes GM(1,1)prediction model and combined prediction model to predict sea-rail intermodal transport volume.Through the comparison with two models,then predict the sea-rail intermodal transport volume of Tianjin port in 2021-2023.Finally,according to the forecast results,this paper puts forward the development plan of sea-rail intermodal transport of Tianjin port under the current economic situation,and solves the problems which are existing in the development of sea-rail intermodal transport in Tianjin port.Thenthis paper provides scientific development suggestions and measures for container sea-rail intermodal transport of Tianjin port.