Research On Chinese Herbal Medicine Price Fluctuation And The Risks Of The Producers And Operators

Chinese herbal medicine industry is Chinese traditional industry,which has developped for thousands of years.Chinese herbal medicine is also a kind of special agricultural products,and is important to the people's livelihood.Its price directly afffects the use of medication.In recent years,with the development of economy,the improvent of the level of aging and the enhance of Residents' health consciousness,Chinese herbal medicine industry develops constantly,and shows an increasing trend in supply and demand situation.But because of the blind production,national major epidemic,venture capital and frequent natural disasters,Chinese herbal medicine price occasional sharp rally and then slumped again,which has a adverse effect to the farmers,Chinese medicine enterprises,consumers and even the whole Chinese herbal medicine industry.Therefore,this paper starts from the industry development situation,analyze the characteristics of price fluctuation,the producers and operators risk caused by Chinese herbal medicine price fluctuation,and its influence factors,and puts forward suggestions to deal with the risk of price fluctuation for the operators.The research results of domestic and foreign scholars on the price fluctuation of agricultural products and the influence factors is abundant.The recent research on Chinese herbal medicine industry development and price fluctuation are also increasing,and those analysis are mainly from two aspects:supply and demand.But most of them are qualitative analysis,and empirical analysis is minimal.This paper defines the concept of price fluctuation of agricultural products,and with the theoretical basis of the cobweb model theory and equilibrium price theory,carries on the analysis,using the method of combining theoretical analysis with empirical analysis.The analysis of the characteristics of price fluctuation and the influence factors is the focus of this paper.With the use of HP filter decomposition on ten varieties of Chinese staple herbal medicine,we found that:in recent years,the price of most varieties of Chinese herbal medicines rise,and have obvious cycle characteristics.Some varieties showed features:the greater the price increases,the greater it declines.The cycle length of different varieties price are different,and even the cycle length of the same species is not always same.They differ from each other for bout 1-2 years.We should deeply analyse its price cycle and adjust the area of planting.The price risk of different varieties of Chinese herbal medicine are different.The price fluctuation risk of Safflower,Coptis chinensis decreases,and Rhizoma Atractylodis,Poria cocos,Polygonum multiflorum increase.With the application of ARCH model to the analysing the fluctuation characteristics of ten kinds of varieties of Chinese staple herbal medicine,we found that Chinese herbal medicine price shows characteristics of heteroskedastic effects and volatility clustering to a certain extent.The effect of the previous price of Radix Isatidis,Rhizoma Atractylodis Macrocephalae,Polygonum multiflorum,Radix Ophiopogonis gradually weakened in course of time.And only the volatility impact of Gastrodia elata price will gradually spread.Among the ten kinds of Chinese herbal medicine,only Radix Isatidis and Radix Ophiopogonis has the characteristic of high risk and high return,the characteristics of other varieties is not obvious.The five kinds of Chinese herbal medicine except Polygonum multiflorum have significant asymmetric effects.The impact of information leading to price increase of Radix Isatidis,Rhizoma Atractylodis Macrocephalae and Radix Ophiopogonis is greater than the information leading to price derease.Only the influence of information leading to price drease of Gastrodia elata is greater.For the analysis of production and operation risk,based on the defination of terms of Agricultural operational risk and produsers and operators of Chinese herbal medicine industry,the paper analyses the producers and operators risk caused by Chinese herbal medicine price fluctuation such as product price risk,cost of raw materials risk,unsalable risk,profitable risk.Firstly,by using the method of theoretical analysis,this paper analyses influence factors to the Chinese herbal medicine price fluctuation from the aspects of supply and demand factors and external impact factors,and then uses vector auto regression model empirically analyse the factors.The results show that:in addition to the significant lagging effect of Chinese herbal medicine own price fluctuation,the supply factors such as planting area are the most important factors.This is because the Chinese herbal medicine demand of the residents equable and the elasticity of supply is far greater than the elasticity of demand.The production cost and the disaster situation also have a certain influence on the Chinese herbal medicine price fluctuations,and the influence increases generally year by year.The effect of Western medicine price is not significant.Conclusion and suggestions are the research goal of this chapter.On the basis of the foregoing summary,this paper put forward measures and suggestions.This article stands on the perspective of the households and Chinese herbal medicine producing,processing,and trading enterprise.The measures and suggestions include improving the price early warning system,intensive mode of production,innovation of industrial organization model,combination development of order agriculture and futures market,and so on.