Research On The Strategy Of Capital Structure Adjustment In Real Estate Industry-Based On SVM Model

Real estate industry is the core industry of national economy.Since the Reform and Opening-up,many real estate companies have managed themselves to reach the top line of size and fund among other industry.During the rapidly growing process,however,company in real estate industry ignored some problems rooted in their capital structure,which is reflected in high leverage ratio and unreasonable debt structure.As China economy has stepped into “new normal”,the government launched a set of policy called “three decreasing,one releasing,one complement”,which including decreasing leverage,so the traditional developing way of extensiveness can be continued no longer.Capital structure optimization,debt risk avoidance,company value maximization have turned out to be problems that cannot be ignored for real estate companies.And according to static capital structure trade-off theory,company's value will be maximum when the debt level reach a certain point.The static trade-off theory then evolved into dynamic theory and become the main part of modern capital structure theory.Decades have passed and the core idea of trade-off theory has never changed,that a company should always adjust its capital structure to the optimal level in order to make the company value maximize.So it is necessary to find out the influence factor of capital structure in real estate industry and use them to predict the direction of capital structure coordination reasonably,and only under such prediction system can our managing department launch completing set of policy to guide the capital structure in real estate industry to its reasonable level and make sure the national economy develop safe and sound.This article utilized dynamic capital structure trade-off theory as theoretical basis,utilized financial leverage ratio and a set of financial indicators of real estate company in a-share from 2012 to 2016 as research object,with the help of panel data partial adjusting model,determined five indicators that significantly affected a company's leverage ratio,including firm size,equity concentration ratio,liquidityratio,asset tangibility ratio and cash quality of profit.Based on public data of these factors,the article specifics a SVM predicting model,dividing the data into two part:data from 2012 to 2015 as train set,and data in 2016 as test set.The result comes out that the accuracy rate reaches 77%,indicates that the model can be utilized to support managing department to formulate custody policy for next period.Finally,the article makes conclusions in six aspects about inventory releasing,custody structure improvement,financing source diversification,speculation demand restraining,local government debt restraining,and multiple factor evaluation system establishment.Along with suggestions that are useful to help real estate companies improving their capital structure.