Research On Risk Management Evaluation Of Distributed PV Power Plant Project Under EPC Model

In order to protect the ecological environment and alleviate the energy shortage,China is developing the distributed photovoltaic projects at a rapid speed.The government has implemented a series of policies to promote the development of distributed photovoltaic projects,and it has seen remarkable achievements.Due to the late start in research and development of China's photovoltaic power station,the unsoundness in relative planning,construction,management and operational standards,investors have no comprehensive and objective understanding of the risks in photovoltaic power station projects.In particular,there is a lack of systematic research on risk management of EPC project in distributed photovoltaic power station.This situation has restricted the healthy and stable development if the industry,and caused waste of resources.Based on many domestic and international essays and paper,also the relevant regulations and policies,this paper firstly explains the background,significance,current situation,methods have been used,and the content of domestic and international research on this subject.Secondly,based on the relevant concepts of EPC general contract model and project risk management,this paper analyzes the relevant theories of the risk management of distributed photovoltaic power generation EPC project,and introduces the related concepts and theories of EPC and project risk management,and provides the theoretical basis for this paper.Then,combining the characteristics and processes of the risk management of the distributed photovoltaic power station,this paper analyzes and identifies the risk factors of the EPC project in the aspects of technology,policy,environment,economy and management,and constructs the risk Index system of the distributed photovoltaic power station EPC project according to the scientific index selection principle.This paper constructs a set of early rish-warning model of the distributed photovoltaic power plant EPC project,that is to introduces the least squares support vector machine model with fuzzy membership degree,and use an improved method of grid search and cross-validation to optimize the parameters.This paper names this model as a GS-FLS-SVM model.In order to verify the risk assessment capability of this model for the distributed photovoltaic power station EPC project,this paper chooses 30 different distributed photovoltaic power stations to carry on the demonstration analysis,and compares the results with the traditional LS-SVM model.It reveals that this GS-FLS-SVM model is more convincing.This research helps to establish a set of reference value risk assessment system and risk control strategy for the upcoming construction of the distributed photovoltaic power plant EPC project,thus provide a strong reference value.