Risk Analysis And Evaluation Of Distributed Photovoltaic Grid Connected Power Generation Project

Energy,as the driving force for the development of the national economy,whether in the political,economic and social aspects,is the hotspot.In China,annual demand for energy,especially the increasing demand for fossil fuels,leads to the shortage of energy and environmental pollution and other issues directly,which inhibit the healthy development of social economy.Due to the damage of distributed photovoltaic power generation project running on the environment is small,and comparing with the centralized large-scale photovoltaic power stations,the construction cost is relatively low,and with the multiple preferential policies of countries and regions,its development is very favorable.Distributed photovoltaic power generation can change the original energy structure,promote the optimal allocation of resources,and protect the ecological environment,so for the society and ecology.The object in this paper is the risk of distributed photovoltaic power generation projects,evaluation of the risk analysis is standing in the perspective,by which we can know whether it is compatible for investment.So it is necessary to find out the types of the risk factors according to the characteristics of the project.Based on the risk evaluation index system construction principles,and construction risk assessment index system of distributed photovoltaic power generation projects and considering with the actual circumstances of the project experience,the investors can avoid the blind pursuit for data information.Each index is given the weights reasonably by using AHP to determine the weight of each index.By using matter-element theory which is based on AHP to determine the matter-element,classical domains,domain,correlation degree of each evaluation can be obtained.Finally,the evaluation model is applied to the risk assessment of 3MW roof photovoltaic power generation project in JX county.The risk of establishment in the distributed photovoltaic power generation project evaluation index system includes external policy risk,environmental risk,technical risk and economic risk.In this paper,the rank of the risk is determined for the "low risk".Combining with these problems,we put forward the related suggestions,so that the results of this study will be done well.Distributed photovoltaic power generation project is based on the practical research,in the project construction and operation process,policy can be implemented in time.And the problems of whether subsidies can be put in place,whether the conditions of the construction project fit the surrounding environment,and whether the project feedbacks to the surrounding environment are analyzed well.Of course,the risk of technology and operation of the project can bring considerable benefits to investors and some visible risk were analyzed comprehensively and based on the analysis of the project risk evaluation factors,we construct the risk evaluation index system and matter-element extension assessment model.Risk evaluation and the risk control in this project,not only can provide guarantee for the project,but also provide important reference for the future similar project.