Research On Investment Risk Assessment Of Low-speed Wind Farm Construction Project In Hilly Area

With the economy of our country developing rapidly,traditional energy sources are facing dilemma of shortage while causing environmental pollution problems.Being a relatively mature renewable energy technology,wind power is gaining more and more attention for its little impact on the environment.After years of development,wind power industry in our country shows an explosive growth.However,due to the distance between the high-wind-speed resource area and the electricity demand area,large-scale wind curtailment phenomenon is showing up in high-wind-speed resource area which has caused waste of wind resources.Due to the characteristics that low-wind-speed wind resource areas are close to the electricity load areas,our state urgently needs to solve the wind curtailment phenomenon effectively by developing wind energy resources in low-wind-speed areas such as the mid-east part and south part of China and promoting the sustainable development of our wind power industry.As most of the low-speed wind projects are located in the hilly areas,the previous experience of large-scale wind power development is no longer suitable for the characteristics of low-speed wind power.However,the current research literatures have not formed a complete system for investment risk assessment of low-speed wind farm construction projects.It is difficult to guide the investment risk assessment and it is necessary to conduct a more systematic study on them.This paper firstly conducted a large number of literature review and data collection,analyzed the current study status of wind farm construction projects and investment risk assessment and provided a theoretical support for our study.On this basis,we get the general index of investment risk assessment of wind farm construction projects.We combined the demand and characteristics of low-speed wind power development in hilly areas at the same time to build a systematic investment risk assessment that is in line with the characteristics of low-speed wind farm construction projects in hilly areas index system.Subsequently,this paper build an investment risk assessment model based on hesitating fuzzy linguistic terminology(HFLTS).Under the premise of analysis of mutual influence of each index,this paper calculates the weight of each index by using the Analytical Network Process(ANP)method.By combining HFLTS and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method,our method provided a reliable basis for investment risk assessment of low-speed wind farm construction projects.At last,this paper carried out an example analysis in order to verify the feasibility and effectiveness of the model in practical application.By using investment risk assessment index system and evaluation model proposed above,we assessed the investment risk of low-speed wind farm construction projects in Lichuan City whose results confirmed that the investment risk assessment index system and evaluation model have certain application value in the investment risk assessment of low-speed wind farm construction projects in hilly areas.This paper mainly carried on the innovation research of related theories and methods from the following aspects.First of all,this paper established a system of investment risk assessment index system that is in line with the characteristics of low-speed wind farm construction projects in hilly areas.Secondly,this paper combined HFLTS with fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method to build a model of investment risk assessment,and gave a more complete description of the fuzziness and uncertainty of risk assessment,then applied it to investment risk assessment of low-speed wind farm construction project in hilly area.At last,this paper verified the feasibility and effectiveness of investment risk assessment model proposed in this paper through a case study which can provide a more reliable basis for the investment risk assessment of low-speed wind farm construction project.