The Research On The Evaluation And Decision-making Optimization Model For Wind Power Projects Investment Risk

Energy is related to the overall and strategic issues of China's economic and social development,therefore,it is very important for China's economic development and the improvement of people's living standards.At present,under the dual constraints of low-carbon economic development and energy use of sustainable development,China will strengthen the exploitation and utilization of wind energy sources such as wind,solar and biomass in the future development,to reduce power system carbon emissions level and promote the energy revolution process.China is rich in wind energy resources,and the development potential is enormous.Therefore,under the support of national policy,wind energy power generation industry has developed rapidly in recent years.As wind energy industry belongs to technology-intensive industries,its large investment,and investment faces many uncertain factors,thus how to evaluate the uncertain factors of wind energy investment,and then make scientific and rational investment decisions,is great significance for the development of wind energy.In this context,this paper takes wind energy as the research object,uses risk management theory,investment decision theory and comprehensive evaluation theory to analyze,evaluate and make decision on the investment risk of wind energy,provides the model work for investors to make investment decision,and provides a theoretical basis for the government to develop wind energy incentives policy.The main contents of this paper include the following four aspects:(1)This paper combs the domestic and foreign research status and related theories of the risk management of wind energy investment.Firstly,the paper sorts out the research status of risk analysis and prevention of wind energy investment.Then,it summarizes the basic content of risk management and investment decision theory,including the connotation of risk management theory,risk analysis and control methods,risk assessment theory and methods,and the connotation of investment decision theory,which lays a theoretical foundation for investment risk analysis,assessment and decision of wind energy investment.(2)Based on life cycle theory,the risk of wind energy investment is divided into five stages:decision-making,design,construction,operation and maintenance,and scrap recycling.And the risk factors of each stage are subdivided to form the index system of wind energy investment risk.There is a certain internal relation between wind energy investment risks,and it is possible to identify the transmission relationships among the various risk factors by interpreting the structural model.From the hierarchical structure of risk factors,the risk factors of the earlier life cycle of the wind energy power generation project are all distributed in the lower level of the hierarchical structure diagram.On the contrary,the factors of the later life cycle are distributed in the higher level of the hierarchical structure diagram.(3)Establishing a wind energy investment evaluation and controlling model.First of all,it introduces the main content of wind energy investment risk in three aspects,like the purpose,indexes,and process;then it introduces the grey clustering method of trigonometric function and establishes a risk evaluation model for wind energy investment;finally,it constructs an investment portfolio model of multi region and multi type of energy for the coordinated development of wind energy and fossil energy.Taking the investment incomes and the risks of power generation projects into consideration,and considering the constraints of resource conditions,power generation capacity growth,electricity demand,and so on,the proportion of investment in various types of energy will be found.Through the sensitivity analysis,we can know that the more the investors prefer,the more investments will go to the wind power projects,or will increase the proportion of hydropower investment.(4)Putting forward the investment risk decision model of wind energy,and studying the investment decision of wind energy in different incentive mechanism.Firstly,it analyses the economic analysis of wind energy and the uncertainty of investment.Secondly,it introduces the option theory of auxiliary services compensation mechanism without incentive mechanism,incentive mechanism,pricing,and green certificate trading mechanism of investment opportunity and investment capacity is studied.Finally,the example analysis shows that the incentive policy,the option value of investment in wind energy will increase.It can attract investors.Compared with the tariff mechanism,the investment of auxiliary services has a better effect on compensation incentive mechanism of wind energy incentive effect.In the long term,wind energy certificate trading will attract investors for a larger project.