| Under the background of de-leverage,commercial banks have to tighten the credit to the real estate industry,but the real estate trust show the explosive growth against policy,which provide a large amount of credit aid to the real estate industry.As a new type of financing channel for real estate enterprises,real estate trust also have the characteristics of shadow banking.In recent years,they often take their advantages of structural flexibility and institutional advantage to help other institutions break through the restrictions of supervision so as to complete financing or lending.At present,it is one of the major policies of our government to stabilize housing prices and reduce the risks in the real estate industry relying on credit constraint to control the investment in real estate and reduce the operating leverage of real estate enterprises.However,with the rapid growth of real estate trust,their impact on the effect of policy and the influence on the real estate market will inevitably play a role in housing prices.It is an important task for our country to stabilize housing price at present,so it is of great practical significance to study the influencing mechanism of real estate trust on real estate price.Based on the background of strict regulation and control for the bank credit under the requirement of de-leverage,and the current financing state of China's real estate market and the development of real estate trust in China,this paper analysis the acting path and effect of the real estate price combined with the impact of real estate trust on the policy effect and the influence on the real estate market.In the theoretical mechanism,it is believed that real estate trust will make an impact on real estate price based on four basic acting paths including supply-demand theory,liquidity effect,cost effect and market expectation,which have weakened the effective implementation of"de-leverage" for the real estate enterprises and the policy of real estate price control.In the empirical test,firstly,the structural vector autoregression model is constructed with time series,and the influencing mechanism of real estate trust on real estate price and the influence on macro-control under the background of de-leverage have been tested by impulse response and counterfactual simulation.Secondly,the data of the aggregate real estate trust issued by 68 trust companies in China have been collected to construct the panel fixed effect model of the whole country,east and west regions,which further analysis the influence intensity and regional differences of the real estate trust on the real estate price.The empirical results show that the real estate trust has a positive effect on the real estate price,and the increase of the real estate trust will weaken the response of housing prices and real estate investment to the tightening monetary policy,which not only affects the policy effect of controlling housing price through monetary policy to some extent,but also has influence on the de-leverage effect of real estate industry.Further analysis indicates that,at present,the real estate trust in our country has not played the role of mobilizing social idle funds.Under the background of de-leverage,the real estate trust has mostly acted as the channel for commercial banks to send moneys to the real estate industry and circumvent supervision,which makes the risk of the real estate industry in our country still gather in the commercial banks.Based on the above conclusions,it is suggested that different financial innovations should be in differentiated regulation,the pre-warning mechanism of systemic risk should be improved,and the trust should be assisted transition to return to their essence. |
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