Study On The Influencing Factors Of Real Estate Price From The Perspective Of Closed And Open

Since the housing reform began in 1998,the real estate market on the vigorous development and gradually become a pillar industry of the national economy,which has made important contributions to China's rapid economic growth.In recent years,in order to maintain a healthy development of the real estate industry,the state introduced a number of regulatory programs for the market,covering many aspects of the industry.For example,in order to prevent the market overheating,high house price,the state introduced a series of measures to curb market speculation.Eight National Regulation,New Five National Regulation and so on were Introduced to maintain the relative stability of commercial housing prices,adjust the housing supply structure,increase the affordable housing and low-cost housing and other kind of supply for real estate prices.But the real estate prices are too high,although these policies have achieved some results.Real estate is a capital intensive industry,and the influence of funds on it is significant.Real estate can be either consumer goods or investment goods.The dual nature of consumer goods and investment goods attract a large number of funds,the industry occupies a lot of money will inevitably bring credit risk,pushing the lever.Therefore,studying the impact of real estate prices is very important to regulate the real estate market and establish a long-term mechanism to promote the steady and healthy development of the real estate market.This dissertation firstly uses the state space model and the Markov-Switching Vector Autoregression to analyze the influence of the leverage ratio,Aggregate Social Credit on the real estate price under the closed economy condition.Then,concerned about the deviation between exchange rate and asset price in 2016,the paper studies the effect of exchange rate and short-term capital flow on real estate price changes,and analyzes the time-varying characteristics and structural changes of the impact of various factors on real estate prices through the Time-Varying Parameter Vector Autoregression.After theoretical analysis and empirical research,this paper draws the following conclusions:First,there is relationship between real estate prices and the real estate business leverage,household leverage and Aggregate Social Credit,which are closely related to real estate market.The rise of the three can promote the rise in real estate prices.Moreover,relative to the real estate business leverage,the rising household leverage has a relatively stable impact on real estate prices,and there is also an interaction between the two leverage ratios and Aggregate Social Credit and credit,and the increase in leverage can promote the impact of Aggregate Social Credit on real estate prices.In addition,this paper also finds that the interaction between real estate enterprises,household leverage,Aggregate Social Credit and the interaction between the two leverages and Aggregate Social Credit in the closed economy have different effects on the real estate price at different time points based on the State Space Model and the MS-VAR model.Second,the exchange rate will have a positive effect on the real estate price through the liquidity effect,the wealth effect and the expected effect,and will enhance the effect of the short-term capital flow on the real estate price.Moreover,the effect of the exchange rate and its related factors on the impact of real estate prices is time-varying,not only short,medium and long-term impact response effect is different,but also the impact of various factors is different in different economic environment(time point).In fact,by the variance decomposition results we can see that the direct effect of exchange rate on real estate prices is very weak,but it will indirectly lead to real estate prices by triggering short-term capital flows and other factors,which cannot be ignored.Third,the reasons of real estate price change are not the same in different economic environment.In recent years,the main reasons for the surge in real estate prices are the overweight domestic currency,increased leverage and the proliferation of market liquidity.Exchange rate and its related factors on the real estate prices do have some impact on the real estate,but not the deciding factor.