Study On Influencing Factors Of Real Estate Price Fluctuation In China

Under the regulation concept of “houses are for living in and not for speculation”,stabilizing housing prices and expectations is an important means to promote the stable and healthy development of the real estate market.With the rapid development of urban economy,some existing literatures have explored the formation,fluctuation,influencing factors and action mechanism of real estate price in theory and practice.There are still some shortcomings: firstly,there is a lack of research on the dynamic evolution of time series;secondly,there are few studies that take human behavior factors and policy factors into consideration.Based on the theory ofrelationship between government and market,this paper constructs the theoretical analysis framework of the influence factors of the real estate price fluctuation in China.By using the macro data of urban real estate price and micro data of real estate enterprises,it sorts out and summarizes the real estate price fluctuation in China,using game theory method to reveal the real estate enterprises,consumers and the government’s game behavior influenced on real estate prices,and then building the dynamic panel GMM model and CSAD model,analyzing the dynamic evolution empirically of housing prices in different regions and periods.Finally,proposing systematically the government management measures,and the main research conclusions are as follows:First,the real estate market belongs to the imperfectly competitive market in our country,there is a market failure and the government should intervene to reduce the endogenous transaction cost and exogenous transaction cost.Under the dual role of market and government,macroeconomic factors such as economic fundamentals,real estate market and public policies,as well as micro factors such as land price,construction and installation cost,all have an impact on the real estate price,and there are differences in spatial dimension,time dimension and individual dimension.Second,on the whole,China’s real estate prices have been rising steadily,the growth rate and the degree of differentiation show an “inverted u-shaped” curve trend.At the regional level,its distribution and regional economic development pattern have a spatial duality.At the urban level,the fluctuation of first-tier cities is more severe than that of second-tier cities.Third,based on game analysis,there is a serious adverse selection problem in the real estate market due to information asymmetry.When the government implements elastic regulation measures,the rational Sequential Equilibrium of real estate price fluctuation has only one refined the Nash equilibrium solution,which promotes the return of real estate price to value.Fourth,through the empirical analysis,the influence of different factors on housing price fluctuation is significantly heterogeneous from the regional level.There are the dominant factors affecting housing prices from temporal level.Furthermore,through the CSAD model,it is revealed that there is significant herding behavior in China’s commercial housing market,and the trend is becoming more and more serious.Fifth,under the new situation,the government needs to explore the innovation of real estate price management measures from the aspects of improving the interest adjustment mechanism of the real estate market,deepening the transformation and innovation of the real estate market regulation policies,and perfecting the supply and demand structure of the real estate market.Compared with existing researches,this paper is innovative in the following aspects:(1)innovation in research perspective.This paper expands the discussion paradigm of price under the condition of perfect competition market and constructs the theoretical analysis framework of the influence factors of Chinese real estate price fluctuation under the dual role of government and market.(2)research content innovation.This paper introduces consumer behavior factors and government behavior factors,at the same time,government policies,consumer expectations and herd behavior are included in the study.And analyzing the mechanism differences of different factors in spatial dimension,time dimension and individual dimension.(3)innovation of research methods.This paper includes the government subject,expands the game model of real estate price subject behavior,and constructs a testing model of the regional differentiation,time series change and herd behavior of real estate price under different policy conditions to make the assumptions and constraints of the model more realistic.