Analysis Of The Impact Of Monetary Policy On Housing Price

Since the reform and opening in China rapid economic development,the real estate industry has developed rapidly,and growing and integration,the rapid development of the real estate industry in the development of our country's economy has played a pivotal role.At the same time,the real estate price also has an inseparable relationship with the people's life,and the relationship is getting closer and closer.Housing prices have also risen rapidly along with the development of real estate.Monetary policy plays an important role in regulating the price of commercial housing as an important means of regulating macro-economy.Under such a large background,this paper attempts to study the effect of monetary policy on housing price in different cities.Through qualitative theoretical analysis and quantitative empirical analysis,we hope to compare the different effects of different monetary policy tools in China on the price impact of commodity houses in large and medium-sized cities.The first part is the introduction.This paper expounds the research background and significance of the choice of monetary policy to influence the housing price,and gives a unified overview of the research method design and research content of this paper.At last,the innovation points and shortcomings of this paper are emphasized.This paper has two innovation points: firstly,it analyzes the impact of China's monetary policy on real estate from the perspective of the whole country.Second,unlike previous research methods,this paper is not in the scope of the eastern Midwest division,but the country is classified as one,two,three line city city,it can analyze the effects of monetary policy on housing prices in China.The second part is related literature review.This paper mainly reviews the research on the influence of monetary policy on housing price by domestic and foreign scholars.The study of heterogeneity.It points out that the research is worthy of reference and needs improvement.Thinking and on the basis of existing research literature,the research method and train of thought,the rest of this article put forward in the research on the impact of monetary policy on housing prices in effect proposed several aspects of the exploration of innovation,has laid a solid foundation for the next study.The third part is the theoretical basis for the effect of monetary policy on housing price.We first introduced the theory of monetary policy and monetary policy transmission mechanism;Then the theory of optimal currency area is introduced.Finally,the paper analyzes the transmission mechanism of monetary policy through interest rate path,credit route and asset portfolio.Through this part,this paper sorts out the relevant theoretical basis,and lays the foundation for the analysis of the present situation and the empirical analysis.The fourth part is the analysis of the current situation of China's housing price.We first briefly describes the present situation of the real estate market in China,and then reviews the our country monetary policy since 1998 in regulating the real estate market has a relatively complete course: with the method of graphic finally analyzes the national and one line,two lines,three lines in the big cities of commercial house average sales price in different phase of the monetary policy changes.The fifth part is the empirical analysis of the effect of monetary policy on housing price.Firstly,we divided the large and medium-sized cities,and on the basis of this division,the relevant variable Settings and data selection and processing were carried out.Then has carried on the empirical test,this paper selected the 2004 to 2016,the annual commodity house average sales price,and the interest rate,loan balance and the M2 measure of money supply indicators as a monetary policy tool variables,common to build test and panel data model.The empirical test includes the analysis of stationarity test,co-integration test,regression analysis and panel error correction model.Finally,a comparative analysis and analysis of the empirical results of the first and second tier cities are carried out.The sixth part is the conclusion and prospect.The paper concludes that the credit volume in first-tier cities and the benchmark interest rate over five years have a great impact on the housing price,while the money supply has little effect on the housing price.In the second-tier cities,the money supply and interest rate have a great impact on the housing price,while the credit volume has less significant impact on the housing price.In third-tier cities,only the money supply has a significant impact on housing prices,and the impact of credit and interest rates on house prices is less significant.