Analysis About The Influence Of Andouble Quantitative Easing Policy On Sino Japanese Trade

Economic globalization has made an indivisible organism among the various economies of the world.Interdependence,interaction and mutual restriction,the new policy of a country may have spillover effects on other domestic producers through various ways.Abe Shinzo,the ninety-sixth Prime Minister of Japan,who came to power at the end of 2012,aims to pull Japan out of the shadow of long-term deflation through unconventional quantitative and qualitative easing monetary policy,and to achieve the purpose of stimulating exports and reversing the trade deficit through the devaluation of Japanese yen.China,as Japan's largest trading partner,has a high degree of trade dependence and close exchanges.As a manifestation of the yen's external price,exchange rate has played an important intermediary role in Sino Japanese bilateral trade.The large increase in the yen supply caused by the first arrow of the Andouble administration is bound to bring a series of complex effects to the Chinese economy.In particular,since the yen's exchange rate has been accelerated,the depreciation of the RMB has been close to 35%.But since the second half of 2015,the global risk of risk avoidance has been rising,and the yen has continued to strengthen.In this big exchange rate fluctuation environment,in theory,if there exists a stable long-term equilibrium relationship between exchange rate and trade balance,then a certain impact on the exchange rate will exist on China's trade balance,and the short-term dynamic effect of exchange rate on trade balance can be achieved through the J curve.In this paper,the Abenomics caused the sharp depreciation of the yen as the background,using monthly data from January 2010 to September 2017 and using the VAR model,to explore the fluctuations of bilateral real exchange rate caused by QQE of Japan,whether has brought the spillover effect of “beggar thy neighbor " for trade balance of China.Through empirical tests,it is found that the depreciation of Japanese yen will indeed deteriorate the terms of trade with Japan in the long run,but because of its smaller elasticity coefficient,the explanatory power is not strong enough.The short-term effect of the trade balance,which is influenced by the exchange rate,has always been in the positive level,and the lag effect is positive,and the "J curve effect" does not exist.So this round of Japan's impact on China's exchange rate is not as bad as originally expected,and the negative impact of China will be very limited,while Sino Japanese political issue is a major factor to weaken the role of exchange rate adjustment.Finally,the thesis is summed up from two aspects.On the one hand,it evaluates the effectiveness of the radical quantitative easing monetary policy of the Andouble administration in Japan,so as to provide inspiration and reference for monetary policy practice of China.On the other hand,it mainly provides policy recommendations for our country to deal with the impact of large-scale monetary liquidity.