Analysis Of Japan's Goods Trade Balance

Japan transformed from the state of international goods trade surplus into the international goods trade deficit state since 2011. Trade balance has very important implications for a country's balance of payments and thus the entire economy, especially such as Japan which deeply dependents on international trade. During the past several decades, continued huge trade surplus provides a lot of convenience for Japan's economic development, but also takes potential troubles for the healthy development of international trade in Japan. Japan's goods trade deficit appears again, which can promote the healthy growth of Japan in international trade? Changes in international factors,which can have an impact on the change in the balance of trade in goods in Japan?Considering these problems, this paper attempts to start from the external economic factors, using data from January 1980 to August 2014, by establishing a vector error correction model, by the method of empirical analysis to analyze the relationships among Japan's trade balance, the terms of trade, yen real effective exchange rate, and trade geographic concentration of geographic concentration degree.The thesis consists five parts: Chapter 1 is preface. In this part, author describes the theoretical meaning and realistic meaning about the Japanese trade balance study, then introduce the article structure, the focus, difficulties, the innovation and inadequate of the paper. In part 2, the paper summarizes the literature related to Japanese trade balance, and then expounds the related theories, which are related in this essay. In this part, this paper briefly introduces the trade balance theory, comparative advantage theory and Markowitz's portfolio theory, in order to provide a theoretical basis for the study of Japan's foreign trade balance of goods.Chapter3 researches the status quo and the historical evolution of Japan's trade in goods. The author provides a brief overview of the current situation in Japan trade in goods, followed by introduction of the 1980-2013 Japanese history of foreign trade in goods. In part 4, author empirically analyzes the relations among the related economic variables. In this part, author selected the time series of January 1980 to August 2014 of five economic variables which include the ratio of net exports, the terms of trade, the yen real effective exchange rate, import and export of geographic concentration of geographic concentration, use have long and short-term non-Granger causality test for them by metering econometric software eviews5.0. The results show that both in the short term and in long term the terms of trade have impact on the Japanese trade balance. The variance decomposition also shows that the terms of trade is in addition to the trade balance itself important explanatory variable. Chapter 5 makes a conclusion and enlightenment in the transform of the Japanese trade balance. In this section, we briefly summarize the whole article and explain the research significance of Japanese balance of trade in goods, and what is worth for China's foreign trade development to learn.