A Study On The Moderate Scale Of China's Foreign Exchange Reserve Under The Background Of RMB Internationalization

Under the condition of open economy,a country's foreign exchange reserve scale is one of the important factors to measure the country's economic strength,it can reflect the economic and trade results,as well as to control the macroeconomic environment.In 2015,the size of China's foreign exchange reserves has started to decline,and in 2016 it continued to fall,with a total volume of $3010.5 billion.In 2015,our country has introduced a new round of reform of exchange rate mechanism,accompanied by the RMB capital account convertibility of sustained,formed the impact on our country's import and export trade the yuan on foreign exchange reserves formed the substitution effect,resulted in the foreign exchange reserve scale continue to drop.China's RMB internationalization process is still ongoing,and now the RMB has been included in the SDR as one of the reserve currencies,which undoubtedly accelerates the internationalization of RMB.Therefore,in this situation,the scale of foreign exchange reserves should be controlled at what level has become the focus of domestic scholars.In this paper,abandoned simply demand for foreign exchange reserves,but since the internationalisation of the renminbi in the foreign exchange reserve scale of supply and demand two aspects,and then focus on analysis of the traditional foreign exchange reserve scale demand and the internationalisation of the renminbi foreign exchange reserve scale demand,demand of concrete from the transaction,service demand,the demand and the resident foreign exchange demand of caution four aspects were studied.This paper improved Agarwal model to empirical research,the scale of foreign exchange reserves through a comparative study of the demand.The empirical results show that the foreign exchange reserve scale demand higher than the reality of our country's foreign exchange reserves at the present stage,therefore our country should increase the accumulation of foreign exchange reserves in the following,especially in the countries implementing supply side key moment of the reform to develop the real economy,should give full play to the macro-prudential management functions of the foreign exchange reserves and foreign exchange reserves "stabilisation" function.Review of this article,firstly introduces the present situation of the domestic and foreign research on foreign exchange reserve scale and the approach used in this paper,the foreign exchange reserve scale research and innovation points and the insufficiency.Secondly,this paper introduces the theoretical basis of the moderate scale of foreign exchange reserve,and starts from the measurement of appropriate scale of foreign exchange reserve and the current situation of China's foreign exchange reserve.Third this paper introduces the present situation of RMB internationalization and the internationalization of the yuan on foreign exchange reserves,the influence of supply and demand,at the same time,contrast analysis of the process of RMB internationalization on the implementation of new policies on foreign exchange reserve scale new influence.The fourth is the improvement by agarwal model,to our country in the process of RMB internationalization theoretical moderate scale of foreign exchange reserves estimation,through ratio analysis,total analysis and trend analysis to summarize the empirical results.According to the actual scale of Chinese foreign exchange reserve scale is lower than the moderate foreign exchange reserve in our country,put forward to strengthen the yuan's use in the trade exchange,and to give full play to the function of the "financial stabilizer",use caution,in terms of investment,also should give full play to its macro-prudential management ability and the function of the "stabilisation".