The Study About The Reverse Technology Spillover Effect Of China's OFDI Upon The Countries Along The Belt And Road

2017 has witnessed the renaissance of the global economy with market improving,moderate price level rising,global commodity price rising and the growing international trade.Specifically,the United States had a strong recovery,and Europe had a slight recovery,Asian economy running smoothly.According to the IMF,it forecasts that the world's GDP will grow by 0.4% in 2017,with developed countries growing 2.2 peercent and developing countries growing 4.6 percent,and the growth rate will be 0.5 percent and 0.3 percent respectively.There will also be an increase in international direct investment activity in 2017.UNCTAD expects that global FDI inflows will increase 5% to 1.8 trillion dollars in 2017.In the past two years,thanks to the implementation of “the Belt and Road” and a series of international exchange policies,the Chinese foreign direct investment has gain a rapid growth.Whether the outward foreign direct investment(OFDI)of the countries along the Belt and Road has reverse technology spillover effect on China is of great theoretical and practical significance.This paper firstly analyzed the motivation and influence factors of FDI and concluded the transmission mechanism of China's OFDI reverse technology spillover theoretically.Then it summarized the status of China's OFDI from the aspects of its development history and current situation,distribution of host countries,distribution of areas in home country and industrial distribution.It especially analyzed the status of China's OFDI to the countries along ‘the Belt and Road',in terms of its area,industry and technology investment condition.What's more,based on the data of China's OFDI to 17 countries along the Belt and Road,this paper gave a fixed effect model estimation with 372 panel data for the whole sample,to explore the existence of OFDI reverse technology spillover,its transmission mechanism(technology development and techonology efficiency)and its absorbing ability.Finally,on the basis of the estimation of the whole samples,the paper showed a specific estimation respectively according tothe host countries and areas of home country.The main empirical conclusions are as follows:First,according to the whole sample,the foreign R&D capital stock gained by China's OFDI to countries along the Belt and Road can significantly improve the total factor productivity(TFP)of China's provinces,but with technical inefficiency.In other words,under the full sample,there exists the reverse technology spillover effect of China's OFDI upon the countries along the Belt and Road.As for absorbing ability,the current human capital stock and financial development level of China cannot effectively improve the effect of the OFDI reverse technology spillover.Second,in terms of the development degree of host country,it is impossible to tell whether this reverse technology spillover effect by China's OFDI upon the countries along the Belt and Road has difference among different development-level host countries.And after considering the absorptive capacity index(human capital stock and financial development level),the OFDI reverse technology spillover is not improved.Third,as for the regional anlaysis,the reverse technology spillover effect of China's OFDI upon the countries along the Belt and Road has great difference among different areas in China,with middle and west area better than east area.After adding human capital stock and financial development level,the middle and western regions still have a more significant reverse technology spillover.For the milldle and east areas,the human capital stock and the level of financial development has a greating inhibitory effect to technology spillover than promoting effect.But for west areas,human capital stock and financial development have no effect on the reverse technology spillover.At the end of this paper,policy suggestions are given based on the model conclusions and empirical results.