Prediction Of Guizhou's Economic Growth And Study Of Influence Factors

At present,Guizhou Province maintaining a good momentum of stable and rapid economic development has ranked the top three in the country for seven consecutive years in terms of its economic growth.Under this economic situation,to ensure the sustainable and healthy development of Guizhou's economy,it is significantly important to effectively predict the economic development trend of Guizhou Province,and provide reasonable policy recommendations for the Guizhou Provincial Party Committee,the provincial government and relevant decision-making departments.In view of this,this article has provided prediction and analysis of the future economic development trend of Guizhou Province mainly from three aspects,the economic index prediction,the analysis of the influence factors of economic development,and the selection of new economic growth points.Firstly,four economic indicators were selected in this paper to measure the level of economic development in Guizhou Province: GDP,Per Capita GDP,GDP growth rate,and tertiary industry-to-GDP ratio.Comparison of the prediction accuracy of the time series model and the BP neural network model showed that the BP neural network model had a better prediction effect.Therefore,based on the BP neural network model,prediction of the above four economic indicators was conducted in this paper.The prediction results show that in the next decade,the total economic output of Guizhou Province will continue to increase,people's living standards will increase substantially,the economy will continue to maintain rapid growth,and the tertiary industry-to-GDP ratio will remain stable.Secondly,a multiple linear regression model of factors that may affect Guizhou's GDP was built in this paper,which showed that social fixed asset investment,per capita disposable income of urban residents,net exports,fiscal expenditure,investment in science and technology,and employment had significant influence on the economic development of Guizhou.Therefore,this paper proposed four major measures to promote the healthy development of Guizhou's economy: firstly,comprehensively optimize the industrial structure and improve the per capita disposable income of residents;secondly,spare efforts to promote foreign trade and strengthen economic vitality;thirdly,appropriately enhance fiscal expenditures and increase capital investment in scientific and technological exploration to improve innovation strength;fourthly,increase investment in fixed assets in the whole society and improve people's living standards.Next,from the perspective of industrial structure,this paper has elaborated the selection criteria for new economic growth points and constructed a new economic growth evaluation price index system,including demand income elasticity coefficient,industry correlation coefficient,production efficiency coefficient,scale economic benefit index,and growth index.Based on the principal component analysis,this paper has built a comprehensive evaluation function of the new economic growth points and calculated the comprehensive evaluation value.The results showed that the new economic growth points in Guizhou Province are industrial clusters constituted by communications,computers and other electronic equipment,metal products,machinery and equipment repair services,textiles,clothing,shoes,hats,down feather and relevant products,other manufactured products,non-metallic minerals,and other mining products.In the end,based on Guizhou's own resource superiorities,combined with the above predictions and analysis results,this paper has further proposed policy recommendations for realizing better economic growth in Guizhou: focus on three major strategic actions: poverty alleviation,big data,and big ecology;focus on mid-to-high end products and build ecological brands,achieve "Guizhou products go out of the mountain"," Guizhou products go abroad";promote "Chengdu Chongqing and Guizhou Economic Zone" to a national strategy;establish talent awareness,take ultra-convention development measures to attract,gather and employ talents;perfect the social security system.