Study On Shale Gas Investment Decision Based On Real Options Under The Condition Of Gas Price Subsidy

With the continuous development of the world economy,the consumption of traditional fossil energy,such as coal and oil,is increasing,and the problems of global warming and environmental pollution are becoming more and more serious.In order to solve the above problems,countries will hope to be placed on the research and development of new energy,and the unconventional natural gas,represented by shale gas as an important variety of new energy,has been paid more and more attention by the governments of various countries for its small pollution,high production and good economic benefits.In order to better cope with the change of the world's energy structure,we should readjust the energy consumption structure and ensure energy security.In 2012,the Chinese government formulated a series of incentive policies,including gas price subsidies,to boost shale gas investment enthusiasm and speed up the commercialization of shale gas.The change of the policy elements will bring great changes to the economic benefits of shale gas development projects.Therefore,it is necessary to take the gas price subsidy into the economic evaluation scope and consider the factors such as the market environment and the technological progress.On the basis of comprehensive consideration of risk,it is of great practical significance for promoting the development of shale gas to assess the policy effectiveness and make the best investment strategy of the enterprise.Starting from the theoretical basis,this paper first combed the characteristics of shale gas resources and the option characteristics of shale gas development projects,and demonstrated the necessity and feasibility of introducing the real option theory to the shale gas development project under the gas price subsidy policy.Secondly,the theoretical basis and the present subsidy policy are the basis and the present.The actual application is combed,the important influence of the subsidy policy on industry development is clarified.Then,the decision thinking is established by the construction of the delay option model,and the critical value of the investment is obtained by using the dynamic programming method.Finally,the mathematical model is combined with the reality situation,and the subsidy belt of the gas price is carried out through the actual case analysis.The influence of different factors on the critical value of investment under the influence of gas price subsidies is calculated,and the scientific and feasibility of the critical value of investment as an investment decision tool is verified.In this study,we further deepen the application of real options in shale gas development projects,and obtain a practical tool for investment decision under the gas price subsidy policy-the critical value of investment.At the same time,by measuring the influence of different factors on the critical value of investment,we put forward the policy suggestions for different factors.Can provide the basis for the adjustment of the policy on,also provides a new idea and suggestion to promote the rapid development of shale gas.