Research On The Influence Of Income Uncertainty On Household's Liability Behavior

With the accumulation of wealth,the improvement of financial instruments,and the improvement of the level of household consumption,the household's willingness to debt and the degree of debt have increased significantly,and the household debt pathway has also been effectively enriched.The CHFS Report in 2014 shows that 50.2 percent families hold debt investigated in China,34.7 percent families borrow from informal channels,exceeding the proportion of households with bank loans.At the same time,the debt behavior of different families is often accompanied by the difference of family micro factors.Therefore,the study of the impact of family micro factors on domestic debt behavior(including debt willingness,debt degree,borrowing channels),has important theoretical and practical significance for in-depth understanding and the financial credit consciousness and regulating household debt behavior.In recent years,research on family finance at home and abroad has achieved remarkable results,the study of family finance has acquired significant research achievements,but the related research mainly concentrated in family financial activity and household consumption credit and family financial asset allocation,the study of household debt behavior has less been involved.This study based on CHFS data,analyzes the impact of income uncertainty on household debt behavior from the household microscopic perspective.In order to fully and thoroughly research the impact of income uncertainty on household debt behavior,household income has been divided into wage income,operating income,and transfer income,then discussing the relationship between income uncertainty and family debt behavior from the perspectives of debt willingness,debt level,and choice of lending route.First of all,selecting the original variables and putting forward research hypotheses on the basis of literature and theoretical review.Secondly,building the Probit,Tobit and multivariate Logistic regression models on the basis of factor analysis.Lastly,analyzing the influence of income uncertainty on household debt willingness,debt degree and borrowing channels through these above models.The results show that wage income uncertainty and operating income uncertainty have a significant impact on the family's willingness to debt,debt level,and the choice of lending channels.The transfer uncertainty income has a significant impact on the willingness of debt and the degree of debt.The uncertainty in transferable income has little effect on whether households prefer bank loans and mixed channel lending.This study not only further demonstrates the impact of different income uncertainty on household debt behavior,but also explores new micro influence factors of household debt behavior,and make the research more lending channels to choose strips and systematic,providing countries a decision-making model to reduce household debt risk,and complete the financial credit policy.