The Determinants Of Household Saving Rate In China: From The Perspective Of Delay Retirement

In recent years,with the rapid development of China's economy,the coexistence of high saving rate and low consumption rate has been widely concerned by all circles of society.The high savings rate of residents has both positive and negative effects on the optimization of the capital structure and the sustained and healthy development of our economy.As the increasing aggravation of the aging problem and the extension of life expectancy and years of schooling in China,the delayed retirement system will extend the working period,the length of the retirement period,resulting in the uncertainty of the income and expenditure of the residents,thus indirectly affecting the household savings rate.Based on the perspective of delayed retirement,this paper studies the factors that affect the household savings rate,and the results will help the policy makers to more fully assess the possible impact of delayed retirement age.This paper applies qualitative and quantitative analysis to research the influence of the perspective of delay retirement(including duration of work period,duration of retirement period,income uncertainty and expenditure uncertainty)on household savings.The empirical part of this article using the 2000,2005,2010 and 2015 panel data of 30 provinces(Chongqing not included),municipalities and autonomous regions to establish a dynamic panel model,using GMM estimation method,and the regression results were applied to testing the robustness and reliability of the regression results.The results show that,without introducing other control variables,the life expectancy,income uncertainty and expenditure uncertainty are significant to the household savings rate at 1% of the significant level,and the effect of the change in the number of years schooling on the household savings rate is not significant.Then,introducing some kinds of structural variables,such as population structure variables(including child dependency ratio,the elderly dependency ratio),the endowment insurance system variables(including the coverage of old-age insurance and pension scale)and urban and rural dual economy structure variables(including income gap between urban and rural residents,urbanization)and macroeconomic variables(including the real interest rates,per capita income growth factors),the impact of income uncertainty,uncertainty of expenditure and the number of years of education on the household savings rate is not significant,but the life expectancy is significant to the household savings rate at 1%significant level.The article draws the conclusion and put forward some corresponding policy and suggestions,firstly,encouraging the implementation of delayed retirement policy;secondly,speed up the process of urbanization,improving the income of rural residents and narrowing the income gap between urban and rural residents;thirdly,the government should take measures to improve the financial system and capital markets;fourthly,making clear of the focus of pension reform;fifthly,improving the social security system,reducing the uncertainty of expenditure of residents in the future,and stimulating the desire of residents.