Research On The Driving Factors Of Cross-Border Short-Term Capital Flow In Emerging Economies

With the rapid development of economic globalization and financial globalization,short-term cross-border capital flows between countries are becoming more frequent.The inflow of short-term cross-border capital can temporarily ease the pressure of short-term capital shortage in a country,but at the same time it is active.And speculative,large-scale short-term capital flows will have a negative impact on the financial stability of some countries.The financial market development of emerging economies is not as stable as that of developed countries.Therefore,the financial stability of emerging economies is more susceptible to external factors.Large-scale short-term cross-border capital flows are more likely to adversely affect the financial stability of emerging economies.Therefore,it is very necessary for emerging economies to effectively manage their short-term cross-border capital flows.The prerequisite for effective management is to clarify the short-term cross-border of emerging economies on the basis of accurate measurement.The driving force of capital flows.The article mainly selects the "BRICs"countries,the most representative countries in emerging economies,as a sample to identify the drivers of short-term cross-border capital flows in emerging economies.The article summarizes the domestic and international literature on cross-border capital flow theory,and outlines the general theory of capital flow development from the burgeoning of capital flows to the domestic and foreign countries,and combs the driving factors of short-term cross-border capital flows.Based on this analysis,The current status of short-term cross-border capital flows in the BRICS countries,and based on mature cross-border capital flows theory,analyzes the impact of interest rates,exchange rates,vix indices,etc.on the short-term cross-border capital of the BRICS.On the basis of the previous analysis,select the quarterly data of "BRICs" from 2003 to 2018,and identify the driving factors of short-term cross-border capital flows of "BRICs" through static and dynamic panel data models,respectively,based on PVAR.The model performs impulse response and variance decomposition,and analyzes the driving factors of short-term cross-border capital flows in the BRICS countries.The results show that for the BRICS and even emerging economies,the driving factors and driving factors will be Affecting its short-term cross-border capital flows,its economic situation,the US economic situation,and global liquidity are the most important drivers.