Land Use Dynamic Change Research And Development Trend Prediction In Xinhe County

All human social activities are inseparable from the land,and changes in the type of land use will directly affect the regional ecological environment.The rapid socioeconomic development has led to an uncontrolled expansion of construction land,making the contradiction between construction land and agricultural land increasingly intensified.Therefore,we must rush to discover the way of land use change before finding out more environmental problems,find its driving mechanism,adapt to local conditions,and achieve sustainable use of land resources.In this study,ENVI 5.3 ? ArcGIS 10.2 and SPSS software were used to analyze remote sensing image data,land use status data and socioeconomic data of Xinhe County in 1995,2002,2009 and 2016 respectively,and finally,the CA-Markov module of IDRISI software was applied to predict the land use data of Xinhe County in 2023,and the land use data of 2023 were obtained,and the environmental effects of land use change were analyzed,and countermeasures for sustainable land use were put forward.The main conclusions of the study are:(1)The main types of land use in the research area are unused land,accounting for 56.42% of the total area of the research area.With the development of social economy,the unused land area is gradually reduced,and the land type is converted into construction land or grassland,woodland,arable land,etc.The area of construction land is increased rapidly,which is the largest category of the six types of land.The study area is a traditional large agricultural county,due to the demand-supply balance policy had made Xinhe County cultivated land in a state of dynamic balance.(2)The land use diversity index in Xinhe County has maintained a steady increase,increasing from 1.23 in 1995 to 1.24 in 2016,and the land types in the study area have become complicated.At the same time,the landscape deviation index also showed a trend of gradual increase in,it shows that Xinhe County social and economic activities within the county on the natural environment have great influence,and gradually enhance its capability of human modification of the natural environment.(3)Restricted by topographic factors,the construction land and agricultural land are concentrated in the northeast of Xinhe County.It can be found that as the road buffer area increases gradually,the construction land area decreases gradually,and the proportion of arable land shows the trend of decreasing.In numerous social economic factors,the land use type is mainly affected by the non-agricultural population,the first industrial output value,the second industry output value,GDP and other socioeconomic factors,which determine the development speed of the research area and the conversion trend of the land types.(4)Using CA-Markov model to forecast result,by 2023,the Xinhe County construction land increased significantly,cultivated land,forest land area also showed a trend of increase,water area increases slightly.The area of unused land and grassland decreased.Through the analysis of the sensitivity index and the ecological contribution rate of the research area from 1995 to 2023,it can be seen that the sensitivity index and the ecological contribution rate of each region are fluctuating greatly,so the protection and utilization of the water,grassland and woodland in the county area should be strengthened to stabilize the indexes.According to the characteristics of land use change in the study area and its environmental effect,and puts forward some countermeasures to establish a sustainable land use,realize the harmonious coexistence between man and nature.Focus on protection of the ecological environment while creating better material conditions.We should adhere to the policy of saving priority,protecting priority and natural recovery,and form a space pattern,industrial structure,mode of production and way of life that conserve resources and protect the environment.