Dynamic Change And Prediction Research Of Land Use In Baicheng County

With the rapid development of social economy,demand for land and use pattern of human beings have changed,thus changing the land use pattern,land use contradiction is increasingly obvious.It is important for us to make use of the land resources for scientifically guide land use pattern on the future,exploring the mechanism and the driving factors of land use pattern,based on the CA-Markov prediction model,the future land use pattern is predicted and studied,which will provide the basis for the future development of scientific and sustainable land use planning and landscape pattern optimization.This paper analyzes the dynamic changes of land use and the evolution of landscape spatial pattern in the study area from 2005 to 2015,and discusses the driving mechanism of the global landscape pattern in Baicheng County.Based on the CA-Markov model.This study mainly draws the following conclusions:(1)During the period from 2005 to 2015,the land use pattern within the county area changed greatly,showing the increase of construction land,cultivated land and forestland,and the decrease of grassland and unused land.Among them,construction land was increased by 4874.45hm2,unused land was reduced by 3597hm2 and the comprehensive degree of use change was 1.19.The increase of landscape diversity index indicates that human activity makes the degree of land fragmentation deepened,the plots in the land type tend to be complicated and irregular,and the use type in the study area is more and more complicated.(2)The factors affecting the land use change,the cultivated land and the construction land are mostly distributed in areas with slope less than 6° and elevation less than 1651m;population and economic factors promote the development of towns,construction land and non-agricultural population are significantly related,the correlation is 0.951;Roads and rivers have a strong appeal to the construction land,with the distance increases,the construction land distribution showed a downward trend;planning and policy guidance and constraints of the construction of land development,while protecting Dynamic balance of total cultivated land in county.(3)Compare the prediction land use type of 2015 in Baicheng County with the actual use pattern of 2015,the Kappa index was 0.9128 with Crosstab test,therefore the CA-Markov prediction accuracy.The projected for construction land is19211.84hm2,and the cultivated land area is 107123.14hm2,which not only satisfies the development of the county level but also the full amount of cultivated land.In general,CA-Markov predicts that land use change has certain advantages and accuracy,and it can be applied to the land planning at the county level.It provides the basis for land use planning,and for the Baicheng County Land Resources Bureau and the relevant units in the land management work to provide reference.