Research On Economic Risk Assessment Of International Infrastructure Construction Project Under The Background Of "One Belt And One Road"

Since China put forward the "Belt and Road" strategy in 2013,the construction of infrastructure projects has been listed as an important task for the country's annual economy,and it is also a priority and key development target for the "One Belt and One Road"strategy.Under the "Belt and Road" initiative,the risks involved in international infrastructure construction are numerous and complex.Participants are involved in many countries.There are great differences in risk management capabilities and different risk preferences.China's international infrastructure construction faces various risks,and economic risks directly affect corporate income.Therefore,we should carry out a systematic research and evaluation of the economic risks faced by the infrastructure and come up with the economic risks of each country in order to propose economic risks.From the perspective of Chinese corporate income,this paper identifies the economic risks through literature research,uses WBS-RBS to establish a risk index system,builds a mutation assessment model,and uses the improved mutation assessment method to evaluate the economic risks of infrastructure construction projects in nine countries in Southeast Asia.The main work of this article includes:(1)Identify the economic risk factors of infrastructure construction projects under the "Belt and Road" initiative.This paper uses the literature research and structural decomposition method to identify the economic risks,and uses the expert interview method to optimize the identified risk factors and obtain the final economic risk factors.According to Professor Ke Yongjian's hierarchical division method,economic risk factors are divided into project level risk,market economy level risk,national level risk,and other level risk.(2)Build an economic risk assessment model of infrastructure construction projects under the "Belt and Road" initiative.This paper uses the WBS-RBS method to construct an economic risk evaluation index system,and uses expert survey methods to rank the importance of each level of indicators.According to the mutation theory and the economic risk index system,a mutation evaluation model was constructed,and the improved mutation evaluation method was derived using the mutation model and the numerical conversion method.(3)Evaluate the economic risks of infrastructure construction projects in nine countries in Southeast Asia.According to the improved mutation assessment method,the economic risks of infrastructure construction projects in nine countries in Southeast Asia were evaluated,and the results of economic risk assessment and classification of each country were obtained.The evaluation results were analyzed and risk response measures were proposed.In the study of economic risk assessment,the dissertation analyzed the deficiencies of the existing mutation assessment method and improved the mutation assessment method to obtain an improved mutation assessment method.To a certain extent,the impact of weights on the results is reduced,and the clarity of the evaluation of risk assessment values and the level of division are increased,and the theory of risk evaluation of infrastructure construction is enriched.The dissertation will use the improved mutation assessment method to evaluate the economic risk of international infrastructure construction in nine countries in Southeast Asia and obtain the national economic risk assessment values.From the smallest to the largest,Singapore,Malaysia,Indonesia,the Philippines,Cambodia,Thailand,Laos,and Vietnam Myanmar.Singapore is a light risk,Malaysia and Indonesia are general risks,and other countries are important risks.The research results are of great significance for establishing and improving the "One Belt and One Road" infrastructure economic risk management system,and provide basis for Chinese enterprises to make decisions.