Research On Urban Infrastructure Risk Assessment Based On PPP Model

With China’s comprehensive entry into a moderately prosperous society and the advancement of urbanization,people’s demand for urban infrastructure is getting higher and higher,and people’s daily life is becoming more and more inseparable from infrastructure.Infrastructure construction is not only an indispensable part of China’s urbanization development,but also an indispensable part of urban development.In the process of improving and building urban infrastructure,the human and financial resources required are huge,and it cannot be perfectly achieved by relying on the government alone.In order to solve the problem of shortage of funds and insufficient experience in construction and operation on the part of the government,the PPP model introduces social capital to jointly help China build urban infrastructure.However,due to the long payback period and construction period of PPP projects,as well as the lack of early identification and research of the risks of PPP models in some projects,the blind construction often leads to the project ending in failure,which not only loses government funds,but also aggravates the local debt risk.At present,the construction and operation experience of urban infrastructure PPP projects in China is not mature,so it plays a key role in the risk identification and evaluation of urban infrastructure projects.Firstly,the case analysis method and literature review method are used to identify the risks of urban infrastructure PPP projects.By studying 12 successful cases and15 failed cases in China,analyze the reasons for their success or failure;Then,through the frequency statistics method,a preliminary risk list of the project is formed;In order to revise the preliminary risk list,delete unnecessary risk factors,add ignored risk factors,send questionnaires to relevant experts,and finally identify 18 key risk factors affecting the implementation of urban infrastructure PPP projects,and organize and form a final risk list;According to the source of risk,a risk index evaluation system for urban infrastructure PPP projects including 6 risk indicators and18 secondary risk indicators was constructed.Then,by comparing the risk empowerment method and the risk evaluation method,in terms of risk empowerment,the fuzzy analytic hierarchy method is first used to calculate the subjective weight of the project,and then the improved Critic method and the entropy weight method are used to obtain the objective weight of the project,and finally the combined weight of the risk evaluation index of the urban infrastructure PPP project is obtained,which can reduce the impact of expert subjectivity on the project risk evaluation,and establish a risk evaluation model combined with the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method.The membership matrix and domain of discourse are used to evaluate the risk of the project,and the ambiguous part of the project risk is expressed in mathematical form,so that the risk assessment of urban infrastructure PPP project is more scientific and reasonable.Finally,the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model of urban infrastructure PPP projects is introduced into the comprehensive improvement PPP project of urban public service infrastructure in S city for case study,and it is determined that it is low risk and consistent with the actual project situation.According to the project risk sharing ratio,specific risk response measures for economic risk,construction risk,legal risk,political risk,operational risk and market return risk were proposed to test the feasibility and scientificity of the Fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model of urban infrastructure PPP projects.