Research On Risk Evaluation Of Urban Underground Comprehensive Pipeline PPP Project

At present,an upsurge in the construction of underground comprehensive pipe galleries has emerged in various cities in China.As a highly intensive infrastructure project,an integrated pipeline corridor can effectively solve many social problems such as traffic jams and environmental damage caused by the traditional direct-buried laying of municipal pipelines.At the same time,it saves social resources and improves the city's overall carrying capacity.There are obvious advantages in maintaining urban order and beautifying the urban environment.However,the high cost of comprehensive pipeline construction requires huge investment and high costs for construction and operation,and financial pressure is huge.It has not received large-scale construction promotion in our country.Therefore,using the resource allocation advantages of the PPP model to solve the problem of the government's lack of financial resources,making the PPP model applied to the underground comprehensive pipe corridor has become a hot spot in the industry.However,due to the emerging and specific nature of the integrated pipeline PPP project in China,the sources of project risks are broader in scope and more types.However,the risk management experience is seriously inadequate.Once the risks are not properly controlled,it will result in serious losses and even projects.failure.Therefore,the comprehensive and accurate identification and quantitative evaluation of risks is the key to the success of the underground comprehensive pipeline PPP project,which has important research significance.For existing risk identification methods,such as case analysis,Delphi method,there is not comprehensive risk identification and other defects,the use of holographic level modeling(HHM)method,subsystems from different perspectives at risk,establish risk identification model.This risk identification model consists of two levels: one is based on different levels of risk,and the other is different levels of risk under the risk hierarchy,thus constructing two levels of risk and risk factors.After screening and sorting,11 risk level indicators and 40 risk factor level indicators for the entire life cycle were identified.At the same time,the current risk assessment research does not consider the relationship between risk factors and the hierarchical structure from the overall perspective of the system.This paper uses the ISM to analyze the internal relationship between risks and find out the source risks and Process risk.On this basis,to identify risk factors and risk hierarchy established on the basis of the risk assessment system,the use of risk OWA-gray fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model of underground utility tunnel PPP project faces,designed for different interests The entity formulates reasonable risk management measures to provide decision-making reference.Finally,taking the PPP project of underground comprehensive pipeline corridor in Liaodong city of Panjin as an example,weights are given to the indicator system through the combined weighting method of OWA operator,and then a comprehensive evaluation of integrated pipeline corridor PPP project is conducted to determine the risk level of the project.The OWA operator assigns the extreme value of the score data to a smaller weight,thereby reducing the error caused by the subjective bias and making the determination of the weight more reasonable.The case study shows that the OWA-grey fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model can meet the complex risk requirements for a wide variety of sources and types of underground integrated pipeline PPP projects.It can comprehensively,accurately,and systematically quantify the risk of underground integrated pipeline PPP projects,and The comprehensive performance value of each risk factor is reflected so that through the identification of high-risk links and risk factors,investors and management managers of integrated pipeline PPP projects can provide more scientific and more targeted decision-making basis.Therefore,the risk assessment model constructed in this paper has strong practicality.