Study On The Impact Of ASEAN Infrastructure Construction On Bilateral Trade Flow Between China And ASEAN

ASEAN is a strategic hub for “the 21 st Century Maritime Silk Road” and an important target investor in Asia Infrastructure Investment Bank and Silk Road Fund.“B&R” initiative will satisfy the national interests of most ASEAN countries and will also add new impetus to the cooperation between China and ASEAN.The infrastructure connectivity is the priority area of China-ASEAN cooperation,and it is also a bottleneck restricting China-ASEAN cooperation.At present,there are still many problems in the interconnection of infrastructure between China and ASEAN,and at the national level,there is a big difference in the internal development of the ASEAN countries,and some countries are lagging behind in infrastructure,which restricts the efficiency of China-ASEAN economic and trade cooperation.Specifically speaking,the level of traffic accessibility is not high in China and ASEAN countries;the power industry in some ASEAN countries lags behind with power shortage;and the inconvenience of communication and the lag of Internet development have seriously restricted the space for the coordinated development of China and ASEAN.Therefore,in the context of “B&R”,it is of great significance to innovate and perfect the system and mechanism of China-ASEAN infrastructure cooperation to realize China-ASEAN cooperative development.Further enhancing China's investment in ASEAN infrastructure,strengthening bilateral cooperation in energy,transportation and communications,and breaking through bottlenecks will help promote China-ASEAN trade unimpeded,road connectivity and promote China-ASEAN cooperation towards a higher level.Based on the existing research results,this paper analyzes the status and cooperation of infrastructure in China and ASEAN both before and after the initiative of “B&R” was proposed from three perspectives based on the industries of power,energy,communications and transportation.They are: the current situation of infrastructure in China and ASEAN,the present situation of infrastructure cooperation between China and ASEAN and the investment demand that ASEAN countries may face in the future from the industries of electricity,energy,communications and transportation.And based on the panel data of China and ASEAN countries from 2001 to 2015,the fixed effect model and the variable coefficient model are respectively constructed to study the influence of cross-border infrastructure on the coordinated development of China and ASEAN.Overall,the regression results show that energy,transportation,power and communication interpretation variables have a positive impact on bilateral trade,that is,the improvement of cross-border infrastructure can promote bilateral trade growth.As an important indicator of synergetic development,the results of the regression show that improving cross-border infrastructure construction can promote the synergy development of China-ASEAN,which not only affirms the significance of the system mechanism of innovation infrastructure cooperation,but also provides theoretical basis for it.The results of the fixed effects model show that communication,transportation,energy and power infrastructure have a significant impact on the coordinated development of China-ASEAN,in which the improvement of communication infrastructure has the greatest positive effect on the bilateral trade volume,which is in line with the growing influence of Internet infrastructure construction on bilateral trade in the Internet age.Therefore,we should pay attention to building and perfecting the Internet-related infrastructure.Moreover,the model of variable coefficients shows that the synergistic effect of infrastructure variables on different ASEAN countries varies,and based on the results of the variable coefficient model,it is important to strengthen cooperation with the energy infrastructure of Laos,Myanmar and Viet Nam,to cooperate with communication facilities in Brunei,Myanmar and Laos,and to cooperate with transport facilities in the Philippines,Thailand,Singapore and Indonesia.Finally,based on the comprehensive regression results,this paper puts forward the framework of the system and mechanism of infrastructure cooperation between China and ASEAN from the macroscopic point of view,in which system innovation includes system construction,financing and infrastructure interconnection.The mechanism innovation includes four cooperation mechanisms of energy,transportation,electricity and communication,and puts forward the policy suggestion of coordinated development and the feasible strategic cooperation path.