Structure Evolution And Prediction Of Technology System Of Systems Based On Supernetwork

The structure evolution and prediction of technology system of systems is one of the basic problems of selecting appropriate technologies and is an important foundation for national defense science and technology structure optimization and the development of science and technology.And it is also helpful to making project and plan for the future of weapons.This paper defines the basic concept of defense technology and technology system of systems,analyzes the basic elements and architecture,and put forward the three-layers supernetwork model.This model is of great reference value to grasp the trend of defense technologies,to identify the technology opportunity and to promote the development of weapons.The work of this paper mainly carried out the following aspects:(1)To define the basic concepts of defense technology and technology system of systems,and discusses the characteristics of technology system of systems,such as self-adaptation,randomness,emergence,nonlinearity,openness and diversity.We analyze the evolution motivation,elements and specific process.And the characteristics and evolution process of technology system of systems is the theoretical basis for the establishment of a hierarchical network model.(2)The supernetwork model of technology system of systems is constructed,the practical significance of the three kinds of nodes and the five kinds of links are introduced in detail.Technology activities in our society can be abstracted as a description of the superedge.Not only the superedge can describe the connotation of a science and technology activity and effectively avoid the loss of network construction information;but also this model has a strict mathematical expression and is conducive to the latter part of network analysis.(3)On the basis of the construction of theoretical model and mathematical model,the two basic principles of technology prediction are summarized combined with the actual process of science and technology prediction.The more common superedges between two nodes,the higher link possibility;and the less nodes in specific superedge,the more similarity contribution in each node.According to these principles,we designed 10 types of prediction index.Situation prediction forecasts the possibility of the future architecture in the inner-layer and the inter-layer,and the opportunity prediction of technology development is to predict what technology activities will occur in the future.(4)As an example,the theoretical framework of technology prediction is verified with technologies in the field of unmanned equipment.Result shows that the three-layers supernetwork model can effectively describe the system-of-systems with multi-layer and multi-level characteristics;Based on the two design principles of the total number of superedges and nodes in the specific superedge,S-AA similarity index has well-pleasing performance in the prediction of network structure.Combined with the tag prediction model,we can forecast the future development opportunities of science and technology.The above research results have important reference value for the development of technology system of systems.