Research On The Influence Of Double Price Volatility On China's Maize Import

Since 2016,the government has adjusted the temporary purchase and storage policy of maize,increasing the degree of maize marketization,which has effectively alleviated the problem of "three volumes increase".At the same time,the liberalization of government regulations puts the domestic maize market at greater risk.In particular,the domestic maize market may have even greater challenges in the face of ups and downs in international prices.Based on this,this paper reviews the history of the maize storage system reform process,and defines the domestic and foreign price fluctuation inconsistency mainly caused by policy factors as double price volatility.Then examines the impact of double price volatility on import volume by phased contrast,which was made to improve the domestic maize market and provide policy recommendations.This article first summarizes the evolution of the food market regulation policy,and proposes the concept of double price volatility from the perspective of price transmission mechanism.Based on this,it analyzes the impact mechanism on maize imports from the perspective of comparative advantage and import demand,and then proposes this article's two hypotheses.In the empirical part,we use the GARCH model's residual squared term and the ring growth rate to construct a measure of double price volatility.On this basis,a VAR model between dual price volatility and maize import volume was constructed to verify the research hypothesis.This paper selects the monthly domestic and foreign maize price data from January 2007 to February 2018.It is bounded by the time node of regulatory policy reform.The relevant data are divided into three phases:2007?2008,2009?2015,and 2016?2018,in order to obtain the ability of the domestic maize market to respond to the impact of international markets under different regulatory policies.The results of the study show that:First,the domestic and foreign price fluctuations of maize show a phased difference.The correlation between the two shows "strong-low-strong"characteristics in three phases,which indirectly shows that the degree of domestic and foreign maize market integration also have stage differences;Second,double price volatility has a significant impact on maize imports,and this impact is also characterized by "strong-weak-strong" characteristics due to stage differences.Through the comparison of the first and three stages,it shows that the sensitivity of the domestic maize market to double price fluctuations has declined.Based on the above conclusions,this paper proposes three suggestions:encourage processing companies and other multi-flowing entities to participate in maize acquisitions and strengthen the logistics system to improve the market mechanism;build a complete maize information warning network and improve the effectiveness of futures markets to address market failure issues;take active international trade measures.These are used to solve the problem of the improvement of the anti-risk capability of the domestic maize market in the process of future China's maize marketization reform.