Research On Maize Price Transmission Relations Between China And Abroad

Maize,one of the most closely linked agricultural products in domestic and foreign markets,playing an important role in national food security.After the implementation of the temporary collection and storage policy in 2008,the rapid growth of grain production led by maize has not only ensured the national food security,but also brought some obvious negative effects,which has brought great challenges to continuous growth of farmers' income and sustainable development of maize industry.In order to fully leverage the decisive role of the market in resource allocation,further activate the main vitality of maize industry,the state has implemented the reform of maize collection and storage system,carried out new measures of "market-oriented acquisition + producer subsidies" and promoted the establishment of a new mechanism for maize price formation since 2016.This reform measure has been implemented for 4 years.Under the new situation,what remarkable achievements have been made in the maize policy reform,whether the degree of domestic maize marketization has been enhanced,and what changes have taken place in the transmission relations of domestic and overseas maize prices?Based on the background of the collection and storage system reform,this paper is carried out in the following logical order around these problems.Firstly,comparing the changes before and after the reform,combing the background,main content,characteristics and effectiveness of the reform systematically from the aspects of production,price,inventory status,import trade and deep processing industry operation,Secondly,X12-HP method is used to compare and analyze the trend and characteristics of maize price fluctuations at home and abroad before and after the reform of collection and storage system.Then,VECM model and TVECM model are used to conduct empirical research on the transmission relations of maize prices at home and abroad before and after the reform.Finally,the paper puts forward relevant policy recommendations on the basis of the previous study.The results showed as follows:(1)Since the reform of the collection and storage system,remarkable achievements have been made,such as reducing the government's direct intervention in the market,increasing the marketization of maize,realizing the goal of optimizing the planting structure,activating the market vitality,promoting the market circulation and narrowing the price difference between domestic and foreign maize in general,which has improved the competitiveness of China's maize industry to a certain extent.(2)The trend characteristic of domestic maize price fluctuation is rising first and then falling,while the trend characteristic of international maize price fluctuation is rising first and then falling and then rising.According to the price fluctuation cycle and amplitude changes,this paper found that the stability of domestic maize market has weakened and the degree of marketization has enhanced after the reform,which is more consistent with the stability and marketization degree of foreign maize market,indicating that the domestic and foreign markets are more closer after the reform.There are obvious seasonal fluctuation characteristics of maize price at home and abroad,which are also affected by irregular factors.(3)Through the threshold cointegration test,Using VEC model and TVECM model to test the maize price transmission relations of domestic and foreign before and after the collection and storage system reform.It is found that there is a symmetrical adjustment relationship between maize prices at home and abroad before the reform,and an asymmetric adjustment relationship after the reform.Moreover,transmission relations changes from the one-way transmission relations before the reform to the two-way transmission relations after the reform between China and abroad.(4)In order to stabilize the maize market and ensure the national food security,the paper puts forward some policy suggestions from three aspects,such as deepening reform of the collection and storage system,improving the price monitoring and early warning mechanism of maize,and enhancing maize producers' ability to resist risks.