| As China's economic growth and the deepening of economic globalization, more and more intense competition appeared among every country. So the export trade warning holds a very important position in economic research. Sichuan is one of the key areas for China's opening up. In recent years it benefited from the national macro economy policy support, draw foreign investment, and participate in international division of labor and competition. All these factors promote the progress of export trade. Therefore, to analyze the export trade of Sichuan Province, establish the early warning model based on Sichuan Province, is very important to promote the growth of export trade and make reasonable measures for Sichuan Province.However, the warning of export trade research on current domestic situation caused the following problems: First, early warning models in the export trade based on the sample with a number of sample data, once when the data is not sufficient, the warning effect will be influenced. But because of China's export trade in the early warning started so late, the export trade statistics in every province is not so long which limited the modeling; Second, not entirely suitable for Chinese current economic situation. At present, most trade early warning models established are based on the other countries'economic situation. So for those problems, this paper's data based on the export trade in Sichuan Province, use panel data to improve the traditional model. Provide the Government some valuable suggestions.First, this paper summarizes and analyzes the export trade warning research, using Logit model to analyze the current export data in Sichuan Province.Secondly, based on the current export data in Sichuan Province, establish the Logit model based on the panel data, analyze the current export data in Sichuan Province. And compare with previous results.Finally, use Probit model based on panel data to analyze the impact of factors, provide the Government some valuable suggestions. |
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