| Yunnan Province is an important agricultural province in southwest China.Coffee production accounts for more than 99% of China's total output.Coffee exports earns 200 million US dollars for Yunnan annually.The coffee industry is a characteristic industry that has emerged rapidly in Yunnan Province in recent years.According to the International Coffee Organization,the annual growth rate of the world coffee consumption market from 2007 to 2017 is 2%.The coffee consumption market in Asia and Oceania is growing rapidly.The average growth rate in 2014-2017 is 2.8%,which is one of the main driving force for the growth of global coffee consumption.Yunnan Province locates at key point facing Southeast Asia and South Asia.It is China's southwestern bridgehead.Under the “One Belt and One Road” policy,Yunnan Province has increased its opening up and deepened cooperation with the international community.The coffee export trade has ushered in new opportunities and challenges.Therefore,it is of great significance to study the export potential of Yunnan coffee export.Based on the main factors affecting coffee export trade in Yunnan Province,this paper collects 85 national data from 2003 to 2016 that generated export trade with Yunnan,and analyzed trade potential.Firstly,the basic theoretical knowledge of the gravity model and the evolution of the model are summarized.The research methods of other scholars and the research related to coffee trade are summarized.The model and basic assumptions of this paper are proposed.Secondly,the current situation of coffee production and marketing and trade is explained from two levels: global and Yunnan.Focus on the analysis of the characteristics of Yunnan coffee export trade and the main problems.Finally,using the export panel data of Yunnan Province,the traditional gravity model was extended according to the research hypothesis,and the main influencing factors of coffee export trade in Yunnan Province were analyzed by empirical analysis.The gravitational equation was obtained by stepwise regression.According to the gravitational equation,the trade potential value of 85 countries is calculated,and according to the value,it is divided into potential type,potential expansion type and potential mature type.The conclusion of the article summarizes the main conclusions of this paper and proposes relevant countermeasures.Through research,it is concluded that bilateral GDP,geographical distance,and whether it belongs to the same trade organization have a significant impact on Yunnan coffee export trade.Among them,bilateral GDP and trade flows belonging to the same trade organization are promoting coffee exports,and geographical distance has a hindrance to trade flows.In the calculation of trade potential,21 countries are potential types,25 countries are potential expansion types,and 39 countries are potential mature.Among the potential and potential expansion countries,the countries along the “Belt and Road” account for 82%.For the major trading countries of Yunnan coffee,Germany,the United States,Belgium,the United Kingdom,Russia,Switzerland,Sweden,Spain,etc.,are all mature trades and are relatively stable trading partners.The above conclusions show that the construction of “One Belt,One Road” brings opportunities for Yunnan coffee export,and there are new trade growth points to be developed.On the basis of continuously developing the economy and increasing production,Yunnan Province should strengthen foreign exchanges and cooperation,make good use of the infrastructure construction in the national “Belt and Road” strategy,and promote industrial development. |
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