A Ternary Marginal Study Of Chinese Coffee Export Trade

Expanding the export trade of coffee products is an important initiative to promote the development of China’s coffee industry and an important way to promote the development of China’s agricultural economy.In 2018,China’s Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs issued a document on supporting the development of specialty coffee industry,pointing out the need to develop China’s specialty coffee industry and improve the quality of exports.As an emerging export trade analysis method in recent years,the ternary margin analysis method is mainly applied to study the export trade structure and role mechanism of specific products,and can analyze China’s coffee export trade from a new perspective of export market expansion,so it is important to study the growth drivers of China’s coffee export trade from the ternary margin of price,quantity and expansion,and use it to invert the development of China’s agricultural economy.This paper first examines the concept of ternary margins and its implications.This paper firstly compares the related literature on the concept of ternary margin and its influencing factors,on the basis of which a theoretical analysis framework of the ternary margin of China’s coffee exports is constructed,and a panel regression analysis is conducted on the influencing factors of the price margin,quantity margin and expansion margin in turn using a trade gravity model.The main research findings are as follows:(1)China’s coffee export structure needs to be adjusted,especially the share of higher value-added coffee pods and bean skins,roasted and decaffeinated coffee in the export structure needs to be increased;(2)From the viewpoint of the triadic margin,the expansion margin is the main driving force of coffee export trade growth,i.e.,the contribution of trade growth brought by the development of new markets for coffee exports is high,but the contribution of the quantity margin is slightly insufficient,and there is still much room for upward mobility;(3)From the perspective of the mechanism of action,the productivity level of Chinese coffee has an obvious positive contribution to the quantity margin and the price margin.Although technical barriers to trade have a positive effect on the price and expansion margins in the short term,they are not conducive to the sustainable and healthy development of China’s coffee export trade in the long run.Based on the above findings,the following recommendations are made: increase the quantity margin and price margin.Adjust the export structure,substantially increase the utility of the quantity margin,strengthen brand building,and laterally pull the price margin up;stabilize the contribution rate of the expansion margin.Optimize the quality of exports,improve the added value of export products,expand the export market,and fully stimulate the market breadth to improve;improve production technology,and promote the integrated development of coffee and tourism.Green scientific production,strict control of coffee product quality,integration of industrial resources,and strengthening the integrated development of coffee tourism.The innovation of this paper is: firstly,it constructs a theoretical analysis framework of price margin,quantity margin and expansion margin of China’s coffee export trade;secondly,it constructs a panel econometric model based on the trade gravity framework and empirically analyzes the influence of productivity level,GDP per capita of export destination countries,trade barrier restrictions,exchange rate,fixed trade cost and relative export price on the ternary margin;thirdly,taking coffee,a special agricultural product,as the research object not only broadens the scope of application of the ternary marginal approach,but also provides reference for similar special Chinese agricultural export trade.