Financial Risk Assessment And Early Warning Of China's Strategic Emerging Industries

In 2010,the State Council reviewed and approved the “Decision of the State Council on Accelerating the Cultivation and Development of Strategic Emerging Industries”,which clearly calls for accelerating the cultivation and development of strategic emerging industries.At present,China is vigorously promoting the transformation of old and new driving forces,the development of strategic emerging industries has become an inevitable choice for China to promote high-quality development and seize the economic development of the new era.But due to the short development time,emerging markets have not reached a mature and stable state,uncertainties in factors such as policies,products and capital markets threaten the development of strategic emerging industries,which causing emerging industry companies to fall into the risk of finance and credit directly or indirectly.and the key of survival for companies is the financial risk.Therefore,the reasonable and accurate judgment of the financial risk status of the company,understanding of the specific factors affecting the financial risk of the companies,and making reliable prediction of the future financial risk of the company on this basis are of great significance to the company's managers and investors in the market,This paper takes the listed company of strategic emerging industry as the research objects,and establishes a complete system of assessment and early warning for the financial risk of strategic emerging industry companies.The system is mainly divided into the following three aspects:(1)Establishing emerging market scores(EMS)Model,the working capital / total assets,retained earnings / total assets,operating income / total assets,book value / total liabilities are used to calculate the Z value of company,thereby dividing the company's financial status into safe zones,gray zone and distress zone.(2)Establishing a multi-logit model based on stepwise regression to study the influencing factors of financial risk of listed companies in strategic emerging industries in China.Considering the company's ability of debt paying,growth,operation,profitability,cash flow and asset structure,33 financial indicators are preliminarily selected.The indicators with significant differences are selected from the primary selection indicators by the difference of examination multi-collinearity test,and the panel multiple logit model based on stepwise regression is established to explore the important indicators affecting listed companies in strategic emerging industries.(3)Establishing a panel GM(1,1)model to predict the financial risk of companies.The important financial indicators obtained from the multi-logit model of the panel are predicted separately,and the prediction results are brought into the established multi-logit model of the panel to calculate the probability of safe zone,the gray zone and the distress zone respectively,thereby obtaining the dynamic process of financial risks of the companies.This paper uses Wind database of 1018 listed companies during 2014-2017 financial data to carry on the empirical analysis,and obtains the following conclusions:(1)The EMS model for the assessment accuracy of financial risk for listed companies in strategic emerging industry in 2014-2017 were 89.33%,87.67%,87.67% and 89.33%respectively,it shows the high credibility for the classification results of company's financial risk.The listed companies in strategic emerging industries have been in good financial condition in 2017 in China.Among the seven industries,the energy conservation and environmental protection industry has the largest proportion of companies in financial distress,reaching 4.79%,and the listed companies in the biological industry have the largest proportion in the financial security zone,reaching98.70%.(2)The quick ratio,undistributed profit per share,current asset turnover,total assets turnover,debt to assets ratio,current assets/total assets and capital immobilized ratio have a significant influence on the zone of grey of company's financial risk.The quick ratio,undistributed profit per share,current assets turnover and total asset turnover have a significant impact on the zone of distress of company's financial risk.(3)Between 2018 and 2022,the number of listed companies in China's strategic emerging industry were in financial distress gradually increased from 42 to 116,and the number of companies with financial status in safe zones dropped from 927 to 772.Among them,the number of companies were in financial distress zone in the new generation of information technology industry increased the most,from 11 to 37,and the proportion of all financial distress companies increased from 26.19% to 31.39%,which has been at the highest position.The actual number of listed companies in other industries caught in the financial distress has increased,but the proportion has remained relatively unchanged.Finally,this paper believes that the company should vigorously cultivate and introduce high-level talents and establish a risk monitoring and early warning system based on the conclusions.The state should strengthen macroeconomic regulation and control and improve the market system.At the same time,the early-warning research on the financial risk of strategic emerging industries can be carried out in two aspects: theinnovation and improvement of financial warning methods and the future dynamic prediction of corporate financial risk.