The Analysis Of Debt Crisis Early Warning In Emerging Economies Based On Logit Model

Since the financial crisis in 2008,debt risk has never seemed to leave the public's view.The sovereign debt crisis has long been a major factor affecting world economic and financial stability.Nowadays,the emerging economies are making more and more contributions to the world economy.However,due to the large amount of foreign debts,the emerging economies have often experienced sovereign debt crises in recent decades.The debt crisis has caused great damage to the country and the world economy.Therefore,the study of the early warning system of sovereign debt crisis in emerging economies is very urgent and important.I have seen in the existing literature that most of the analysis and evidence of crisis warnings are about bank crises and currency crises,and there is less literature on early warning of sovereign debt crises.Therefore,this paper will conduct an early warning study and analysis of sovereign debt crisis in emerging economiesFirstly,this paper sorts out the theory of debt crisis,and expounds the definition,formation mechanism and influence of debt crisis,which lays a foundation for the following research.Then,the debt crisis early warning method and the selection of early warning indicators are described.Through the analysis and comparison of the existing debt crisis early warning methods,the advantages and disadvantages of various methods are summarized.On this basis,the debt early warning method based on Logit model is elaborated and the research process of using Logit model in this paper is described in detail.Thirdly,based on Logit model,this paper analyzes the early warning of debt crisis in emerging economies.Data of 10 emerging countries in Latin America,Asia and Africa from 1980 to 2017 were selected for an empirical study.It is found that the Logit method has a good early-warning ability for the debt crisis of emerging economies,and can give early warning signals with a high accuracy.Finally,the conclusion of this research is summarized,and corresponding enlightenment and Suggestions are given.At the same time,the deficiencies in the research are pointed out,and the future research is prospected.