Study On The Impact Of Land Finance On Urban Residents' Consumption

Since the housing monetization reform,the overall trend of land finance and housing prices has been rising,and it has shown a common upward trend.Contrary to this,China's household consumption rate is declining,showing a state of continued downturn.Some people think that the decline in household consumption rate is caused by the rise of land finance,and it is the reduction of household consumption rate caused by land finance by promoting the rise of housing prices and the decline in the income level of residents.But this view has not yet been agreed.However,exploring the impact of land finance on household consumption can provide a good basis for us to reform the land finance system,regulate the housing market,and analyze the reasons that affect household consumption.Therefore,we will explore the relationship between household consumption and land finance,especially whether land finance can affect household consumption through housing prices and income.Because in comparison,housing price changes have a greater impact on urban residents and urban permanent residents who own housing and are ready to buy,and land finance is a fiscal policy that favors cities.Therefore,when setting up the research object,this paper takes urban residents as the research object of this paper and explores the impact of land finance on urban residents' consumption.To study whether land finance can affect urban residents' consumption through housing prices and income,it is necessary to analyze and study the four relationships: land finance and housing prices,housing prices and household consumption,and land finance for income,income and household consumption.The above analysis of the relationship between land finance,house prices,income and household consumption can be known that land finance affects house prices,while house prices affect urban residents' consumption through wealth effects;at the same time,land finance also affects residents' income by improving economic development level and transferring land costs.Level,while income has a direct impact on household consumption.Therefore,this paper assumes that land finance can affect urban residents' consumption through two routes of housing prices and income.A comprehensive examination of the impact of these two channels can infer the impact of land finance on urban residents' consumption.To this end,this paper describes and analyzes the status quo in the second chapter,and finds that the relationship between land finance and housing prices,housing prices and urban residents' consumption,land finance and household income,income and urban residents' consumption is basically the same,showing a positive correlation.relationship.In the third chapter,the model is derived based on the intertemporal consumption and portfolio model.The results of the derivation show that the increase in housing prices will lead to an increase in household consumption;the impact of land finance on the disposable income of residents is positive,and the increase in disposable income of residents is Will promote the increase in household consumption.Through these literature analysis,current situation analysis and model derivation,this paper proposes two hypotheses,namely,the increase of land finance promotes the increase of urban residents' consumption through housing price increase and the increase of urban residents' consumption by promoting the income level of residents.In order to verify whether the hypothesis is true,in the third chapter of the paper,two simultaneous equation models for land finance,housing prices and urban residents' consumption,as well as land finance,income and urban residents' consumption are constructed.Considering that house prices,income and consumption are dynamic processes,this paper uses the system GMM model under the dynamic panel for analysis.The regression results confirm the above two hypotheses.Land finance can positively promote the consumption of urban residents by promoting the rise of housing prices and the increase in the income level of residents.In order to verify whether the impact of land finance through housing prices and income on urban residents' consumption is correct,this paper constructs an empirical model for land finance and urban residents' consumption.At the same time,because the model derivation shows that the per capita housing area and loan interest rate also affect the urban residents' consumption,this paper also constructs a model to conduct relevant tests,and the empirical results verify the conclusions in the model derivation.