Research Of R&D Disclosure Methods Influence On Analyst Earnings Forecasts

The disclosure of R&D information has an important impact on analyst forecasts.A successful R&D project is a sign of innovation and sustainable development capabilities.At the same time,R&D disclosure is an important way for companies to pass on their future earnings signals to the market.R&D disclosure is also an important basis for investors to make decisions,and an important basis for analysts to predict future cash flows of enterprises.However,due to different motives,the management of different enterprises choose to disclose their R&D information in different locations of the annual report,including board report/business situation discussion and analysis,management expense breakdown,development expenditure,cash flow statement notes,etc.Some scholars have found that the R&D expenditure information disclosed by different methods is less comparable,the disclosure is not standardized,the information content is low,the information is inconsistent,and the authenticity is doubtful.They also found that the market has different degrees of recognition of different R&D disclosure methods.As the user of the information,the source and quality of the information are closely related to the prediction results.This paper focuses on the impact of different R&D disclosure methods and R&D disclosure information quality on analysts'accuracy.The purpose is to find out the high-information part of the annual report,which will help analysts and investors to analyze and forecast.This paper selects the listed companies in the information technology industry of Shenzhen Stock Exchange as the research object,and manually collects the data of different R&D disclosure methods and R&D information disclosure quality of listed companies from 2006 to 2016,and investigate the impact of R&D information disclosure on analyst prediction accuracy.The research results show that the disclosure of the board report has more positive influence on the accuracy of analysts'forecasts,and the cash flow is second,while the development expenditure disclosure has less impact on the accuracy of analysts' forecasts.At the same time,the more R&D information disclosure methods adopted by enterprises,the higher the accuracy of analyst predictions.And the increase in the R&D disclosure method of the company helps to improve the accuracy of the analyst's forecast.Combined with the property ownership of the listed company,it is found that state-owned holdings have a significant negative adjustment effect on the impact of R&D disclosure methods.Combined with the personal characteristics of analyst,it is found that the cumulative R&D information disclosure method has a significant effect on the accuracy of the general analyst.The implementation of the revised version of the 2012<Corporate Information Disclosure Content and Format Guidelines for Public Offering Securities>enables analysts'accuracy has been significantly improved,and the quality of R&D information disclosure of board report plays a partial mediating effect.At last,this paper puts forward relevant policy recommendations for improving the quality of R&D disclosure in combination with China's current R&D disclosure policy and empirical test results.