Research On The Calculation,Influencing Factors And Countermeasures Of Overcapacity Of Manufacturing Industries In China

Overcapacity has been one of the most important issues that plague the growth and development of Chinese manufacturing industries.The elimination of backward production capacity and excess capacity are currently the focus of the structural reform of supply side,also the sticking point of industrial restructuring in China.In 2017,Premier Li Keqiang pointed out in his government work report that it would be effective and productive to eliminate overcapacity,resolutely eliminated the substandard backward production capacity,and strictly controlled the excess industries to put on new capacity.Since 1990 s,the overcapacity related to the industries spreads from the textile,steel,cement industry and other traditional industries,now gradually to the photovoltaic,wind power and other new products industries.Overcapacity covers an increasing range,also the influences on the Chinese economy are growing.Therefore,the Chinese government has introduced a series of policies and measures,the overcapacity turns out to still exist.In this context,this study considers the overcapacity of Chinese manufacturing as a major research issue.By studying the influencing factors of the overcapacity in manufacturing industries and analyzing the successful experiences of managing overcapacity from the developed countries,we can put forward some corresponding policy recommendations,in order to help policy makers to explore an effective way to solve the problem of overcapacity in China.This paper firstly selected the data of 27 double-digit industries in China's manufacturing industry from 2003 to 2014,and used the data envelopment analysis(DEA)to calculate the capacity utilization rate of China's manufacturing industry.Then this paper analyzed overall situation of the overcapacity in China's manufacturing industry and had a deep analysis on the industries which were of serious overcapacity.On this basis,the capacity utilization rate was decomposed into technical efficiency and equipment utilization rate.Then from the three aspects of the government,industry and market,the economic models which affected the rates of capacity utilization,technical efficiency and equipment utilization were respectively established to explore the influencing factors of overcapacity.The results suggested that,tax policy and subsidy policy had a more obvious negative impact on technical efficiency from the level of the government.Although the proportion of investment in fixed assets had positive effect on technical efficiency,it still could reduce the capacity utilization from the level of the industry,also the impact of the proportion of state-owned economy on capacity utilization was negative;In the market segment,the higher the industrial concentration was,and the stronger the market opening was,the higher the capacity utilization rate would be.Finally,through the comparative study of the overcapacity in the United States and Japan,this paper made a further analysis of the solution to the overcapacity in China and put forward the corresponding policy suggestions.The government should start from reducing the market intervention,perfecting market price mechanism,standardizing capacity exit mechanism,encouraging enterprises' mergers and acquisitions,strengthening innovation and other aspects to solve the problem of overcapacity in manufacturing industry,so as to enhance the competitiveness of China's manufacturing industry,and promote the healthy development of the economy.