Research On Economic Risk Evaluation Of H Group Investment Project In Ethiopia

With the implementation of The Belt and Road,Ethiopia has become a hot spot of investment for Chinese textile and apparel enterprises.Textile and apparel industry is the national development industry in Ethiopia,Ethiopia has set up a target which will reach 1 billion dollar exports in 2020 of textile and garment industry in GTP II.The policy support and economic incentives for China's textile and apparel enterprises have enabled H group to make Ethiopia its first overseas investment destination.There is high practical significance to analyze and research the economic risk of H group investment in Ethiopia.This paper has mainly divided into three parts.The first part is recognition and brief evaluation of the economic risks of the investment projects,it is concluded that the evaluation system and the level of risk.The economic risk of this project mainly consists of macroeconomic risk and project economic risk,which is divided into seven specific risk indexes.The second part is the empirical analysis,it is based on the analysis model AHP-CIM which is used to analyze the economic risk of the investment project,it turns out the economic risk level is lower.The analytic hierarchy process(AHP)and control interval and memory model(CIM)are used to determine the weight and probability distribution of risk factors.The third part puts forward some suggestions based on the high risk factors in the project,and makes general suggestions on other risk factors.The data of AHP-CIM is based on the interview to textile industry experts who are visited Ethiopia before what makes the analysis result helpful to the textile enterprise decision-making and provide reference for the investment in Ethiopia.This paper through evaluation and analysis of economic risk to provide suggestions and reference to H group as well as other domestic textile and garment enterprises.