Research On Financial Early-warning Of Textile And Garment Listed Company Based On Improved Z-Score Model

In the 21 st century,the textile and garment listed companies of China face a complex and changeable market environment at home and abroad,at the same time,the companies' competition and pressure of management deepen by the restriction inner-enterprises' all kinds of management factors.So it has a great practical significance for the textile and garment listed companies to analysis the financial crisis causes,establish an effective financial crisis early-warning model and presciently provide improvement suggestions.On the basis of summarizing the domestic and foreign financial early warning theoretical research,this thesis analyses the cause of the financial early-warning and establishes the source of financial crisis.Based on the applicability analysis of the Z-Score model test,the thesis provides an early-warning research idea of improved Z-Score model.According to the selected the sample of 40 financial crisis and 40 normal textile and garment listed companies from 2012 to 2017 and 23 financial indices of two years before the financial crisis,the thesis uses the principal component analysis and the statistical software R to analysis the sample group.Then based on screening the effective principal components and the variance devoting rates,it builds a synthesis evaluation function and establishes the improved Z-Score model.Through testing the validity of the model from setting different parameters,the thesis constructs the warning interval,determines the model's warning threshold makes a predictive test for the sample group.The result of research shows that the prediction accuracy rate of the improved Z-Score model is 73.33%,and the rate of the financial crisis group is as much as86.67%.So it indicates that the improved Z-Score model have a good early-warning effect,six principal components have a high interpretation to the state of the textile and garment listed companies' operation.and the indexes of net assets ratio,cash flow ratio and debt guarantee rate have a significant impact on the financial crisis.