Listed Company Financial Risk Early Warning Research

By the end of 2016,the number of listed companies in China exceeded 3,000 for the first time.With the continuous changes in the economic environment and the constant increase in various types of costs,coupled with the continuous development of economic globalization and international trade,more and more multinational companies have entered the Chinese market.These factors make it difficult for listed companies to face the pressure of survival both at home and abroad.The number of abnormal financial conditions of listed companies has been increasing year by year,and it is more urgent to establish the early warning system for financial risks of listed companies.On the basis of reading domestic and foreign research literature on financial risk early warning,this paper studies the early warning of financial risks of listed companies.Different from the previous research,this paper studies the financial risk warnings of listed companies in different industries based on industry perspectives.While enriching the early warning research of financial risks,it also provides a reference for financial risk prediction of listed companies.It should be noted that since the number of listed companies in the primary industry is relatively small,there is no research here,and research is mainly conducted on listed companies in the second and third industries.This article divides the research sample into two groups: modeling sample and test sample.Each sample includes financial crisis(ST company)company and matching financial health(non-ST)company.This article will use 2012 to 2016,a total of five years by ST companies and non-ST companies matching it as a model sample,establish a listed company's financial risk warning model.First,when the indicators were selected,25 financial indicators and 5 non-financial indicators were initially selected.In order to avoid the problem of multicollinearity,principal components analysis was performed on 25 financial indicators to obtain each principal component.Then,the use of logistic regression to establish the second and third industry listed companies financial risk warning model.Finally,through comparison,we can find that the two early-warning models have the same point and different points.The same point is that the return rate of assets is outstanding in the financial early warnings of listed companies in the two major industries.Both listed companies in the major industries should pay attention.The difference is that the indicators such as cost-cost profit margin,operating profit margin,asset-liability ratio and sales-period expense ratio are more important in the financial early warning of listed companies in the secondary industry.In the financial early warning of listed companies inthe tertiary industry,the two indicators of asset growth rate and long-term debt ratio are more important.After the model was established,it was used as a test sample in 2017 by ST's company and its matching non-ST company and brought into two major early warning models to test the accuracy of the model.The results showed that: the use of the second industry listed company financial early warning model At the time,other forecasts are correct except for the company 000922(*ST Jiadian,stock code)and 000972(*ST Zhongji)prediction errors.When using the financial early-warning model for listed companies in the tertiary industry,other predictions were correct except for company000809(*ST Xincheng),600225(*ST Songjiang),and company 002738.It shows that the model has a certain universal applicability,and it has a certain guiding role in predicting financial crisis for listed companies.