Research On The Temporal And Spatial Evolution And Influence Mechanism Of Transportation Carbon Emissions From The Perspective Of Urban Expansion

In the context of “the new normal”,urban agglomeration,as the core form of development,has become the mainstream of regional development.With the fastest economic growth,urban agglomeration has become the region with the largest carbon emissions due to population and industrial agglomeration.However,a large amount of carbon emissions would destroy the balance of ecosystem,resulting in huge economic losses.Therefore,controlling carbon emissions of urban agglomerations and promoting the low-carbon development of urban agglomerations have become inevitable choices for low-carbon economy development in China.In the process of rapid urbanization,transportation industry,as the main source of carbon emissions,is the key area that restricts the accomplishment of low-carbon development in China’s economy and society.As the key sector of energy saving and emission reduction in China,transportation industry should take the responsibility of reducing carbon emissions.Therefore,discussing the impact mechanism of urban transport carbon emissions is of great significance for the low-carbon development of urban agglomerations.Based on this,this paper takes Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei urban agglomeration as the research object,focusing mainly on the following three parts.Firstly,taking city as the scale,carbon emissions of 13 cities in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region from 2005 to 2016 were calculated by using the micro-emission model,and the temporal evolution characteristics of carbon emissions of different modes of transportation were compared and analyzed.Secondly,exploratory spatial data analysis was used,which captures the spatial characteristics of urban-scale traffic carbon emissions,and Arcgis software was also used for spatial visualization.Finally,from a spatial perspective,based on the analysis of spatial correlation and spatial heterogeneity of traffic carbon emissions in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei urban agglomeration,the main factors affecting the carbon emissions of freight and passenger transport were discussed respectively.By constructing a geographically weighted regression model,this paper quantitatively analyzed the different impacts of different influencing factors on urban traffic carbon emissions.This paper is valuable to identify driving factors of transportation carbon emissions and carbon reduction policy-making.