Policy Simulation Analysis Of Carbon Emission From Transportation Industry In Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei

With the increase of carbon emissions from transportation industry year by year,the development of low-carbon transportation has become an important strategy for China to achieve sustainable development and build a low-carbon and energy-saving society.In the regional coordinated development strategy of Beijing,Tianjin and Hebei,it also focuses on promoting the construction of transportation integration of Beijing,Tianjin and Hebei,realizing the construction of regional low-carbon transportation,and further promoting the low-carbon development process of the whole region on this basis.Therefore,the research on the low-carbon mode of regional transportation under the condition of coordinated development of Beijing,Tianjin and Hebei has important research value and significance for the development of low-carbon transportation in China in the future.Using LMDI factor decomposition model,this paper decomposes the factors affecting traffic carbon emissions in Beijing,Tianjin and Hebei into five aspects:population,per capita GDP,carbon emission coefficient,transportation intensity and transportation energy intensity.The analysis shows that both population and per capita GDP promote traffic carbon emissions,and per capita GDP plays a more obvious role than population;Among the three provinces and cities of Beijing,Tianjin and Hebei,the carbon emission coefficient has little impact on traffic carbon emission,and the change tends to be stable year by year;Beijing’s traffic energy intensity effect promotes traffic carbon emissions,while Tianjin and Hebei both inhibit the growth of traffic carbon emissions.Based on the theory of system dynamics,this paper investigates the inter city traffic and urban traffic policies in Beijing,Tianjin and Hebei,makes a systematic and dimensional analysis of the regional traffic carbon emission in Beijing,Tianjin and Hebei,and establishes and expands the system dynamics model of traffic carbon emission in Beijing,Tianjin and Hebei.Because the Beijing Tianjin Hebei regional transportation carbon emission system has multi-dimensional characteristics,and the relationship between dimensions is complex,this paper selects four system dynamics models of Beijing Tianjin Hebei low-carbon transportation from two aspects:space-time dimension and total amount time dimension.The simulation results show that:(1)In terms of Beijing,Tianjin and Hebei,in each scenario,the traffic carbon emissions of Beijing and Tianjin have decreased year by year after 2028,and both have achieved the 2030 carbon peak target in the transportation field,while Hebei has failed to achieve the 2030 carbon peak target in the transportation field in each scenario.Among them,Beijing and Tianjin have formulated targeted policies in terms of public and private transportation compared with Hebei,The relevant policies formulated by Hebei are mostly specified with reference to national standards.There is a big gap between the convergence of policies and the standards formulated by Hebei and Beijing and Tianjin.Therefore,the customized policies of Beijing,Tianjin and Hebei provinces and cities can not really effectively achieve synergy.(2)In terms of inter city transportation,under the benchmark scenario,the transformation from road transportation mode to railway transportation mode can significantly promote the reduction of traffic carbon emission under the premise that the air sharing rate and waterway sharing rate of Beijing,Tianjin and Hebei maintain the current development trend and the turnover of passenger and freight transportation remains unchanged.To a certain extent,the implementation of traffic structure optimization policy and environmental protection governance policy can promote the reduction of traffic carbon emissions in Beijing,Tianjin and Hebei.On the one hand,the transition from high-energy consumption transportation mode to low-energy consumption transportation mode can effectively reduce the total amount of traffic energy consumption.On the other hand,it can improve the emission standard of diesel vehicles,eliminate the operating diesel vehicles with national emission standard of No.3 and below,and directly affect the reduction of unit energy consumption of highway transportation,Fundamentally alleviate the pressure of traffic carbon emission reduction.(3)according to the current development trend,the problem of urban traffic congestion has not been effectively alleviated,the transportation structure has not been optimized,the traffic carbon emission continues to increase,and the 2030 carbon peak goal has not been achieved.The separate implementation of transportation policy and environmental protection policy can not solve the problems existing in transportation and environmental protection in Beijing,Tianjin and Hebei at the same time.The implementation of public transport scenario has only achieved good results in optimizing urban traffic structure and alleviating urban traffic congestion,while the traffic structure optimization scenario has the most obvious effect in optimizing inter city traffic structure and improving transportation efficiency.the comprehensive implementation of emission policy and inter city and inter city traffic policy is an effective way to realize the coordinated and high-quality development of Beijing Tianjin Hebei transportation integration,which is conducive to improving the proportion of green travel,Ease road congestion;It is conducive to optimizing the transportation structure,improving transportation efficiency,promoting the transformation from high-energy consumption to low-energy consumption transportation mode,while taking into account the requirements of energy conservation and emission reduction.